Xbox One Will Lead The PS4 By 2015 – Analyst

Looks like that price cut is going to really work for Microsoft.

Posted By | On 15th, May. 2014 Under News | Follow This Author @GamingBoltTweet


IDC research manager Lewis Ward believes that the recent price cut for Xbox One will make sure that Microsoft will be leading the console wars by 2015. Yesterday. Microsoft announced that they will be selling a Kinect-less version of Xbox One at a retail price of $399 beginning this June.

“This change will be enough to push the Xbox One installed base higher than PS4 in the U.S. and Canada in 2015 rather than 2016. It kind of reminds me of Microsoft’s evolution on Windows and IE. The initial design needs some serious help (i.e., last summer’s DRM ‘Xbox 180’) and then improves to point of being a serious contender (this Kinect unbundling) and then vies for market share dominance (although I continue to believe PS4 will have the largest global installed base of any console at the end of 2016),” he explained,” Lewis said to Gamesindustry.

Earlier, Lewis had predicted that Xbox One will take the lead by 2016, however due to Microsoft’s unexpected price cut, the analyst now believes that the US market will now belong to the Redmond based company.

It’s amazing to note that how competition can help companies to take better decisions. It seems that the PlayStation 4 path to victory won’t be smooth after all.

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  • So…price being the same, people will buy the less powerful system? Because damn it…Titanfall didn’t increase their sales base so now that they’ll match the price of the PS4…and that will do it? LOL

    • Stephen Perry

      The Xbox 360 is less powerful than the PS3 and still plays games just fine and was bought by millions, just like the Xbox One is less than the PS4 and will still be bought by millions because console power has nothing to do with the game unless you want to keep using these pointless resolution comparisons.

    • First off, more people bought the PS3 than the XBox 360. Secondly, I didn’t even bring up the point of resolution (although it is obviously better on PS4).

      If you took two PCs with identical hardware and one had an I5 processor and another PC had an I7 processor. They are both the same price. Which one are you going to buy? If you choose the one with the I5 processor, either you are foolish or have a great reason…so what’s your great reason for purchasing the XBox One over the PS4 other than “still be bought by millions”?

      If you’re going to respond to my post…I’d appreciate some kind of debate.

    • Stephen Perry

      First off, we’re talking sales of the tens of millions where the approximate 1 million console difference means not even 2% of a lead. As for resolution, I was simply stating that it’s the most common pointless argument being made so far this generation while everyone is complaining about gameplay quality from current games on the market. My point with the resolution argument is this: you can play the same horrible mechanics on a more powerful system or a less powerful system, but the game will still have horrible mechanics because of the developer, and since the developer also controls output resolution, the theoretical hardware power differences really don’t mean much in the larger scheme of things.

      As to why I bought an Xbox One first before buying a PS4? That’s simple: I have more friends who are on the Xbox platform than the Playstation platform, although that doesn’t keep me from giving Sony money for PS+ on my Vita. The choice of console cannot be likened to purchasing a PC based on if it has an i7 or i5 in it.

    • The “raw horsepower” difference between the XBox One and the PS4 is significant. If developers take advantage of the horsepower advantage, it will mean plenty in the larger scheme of things, and not just in resolution or frame rates. It will affect the AI, effects, how many enemies in a battle can be onscreen at a time, etc…

      All things aren’t equal this round and I’m not going to spend the same money on a weaker system.

      The only real reason to purchase an XBox One at this point is because your friends have or if you want one of a handful of exclusives available on XBox One. The only one interesting to me at this point is Sunset Overdrive.

    • Stephen Perry

      What do you mean “all things aren’t equal this round”? They weren’t equal last round either and console distribution approached sales parity in terms of a percentage. The matter is still personal choice based on what the consumer feels he wants, like you have just admitted. It’s fine to choose one console over the other, but to just say that the “only real reason” to buy one over the other is because of one real factor of game choice is pretty ridiculous and only proves that the entire console war is really nothing about the console themselves, but whatever games can generate enough hype for people to buy into.

      Sony admittedly does have a handful of really amazing first-party studios developing some pretty awesome looking games, but I personally don’t care enough about baseball for MLB The Show, don’t care much for Killzone, didn’t enjoy the first Infamous game, don’t find TLOU all that appealing when I look at gameplay, never really got into Uncharted, and now prefer Forza’s driving mechanics over Gran Turismo’s. With that said, I can’t personally justify buying a PS4 when my choice of Xbox exclusive titles appeal to me, when the majority of my game libraries are mutliplatform anyway, and don’t care too much about performance coming from either console that is still weaker than my 2 year old laptop.

    • I didn’t care for Killzone, Second Son, or MLB. In fact, all the games (short of Knack for my kids) are multi-platform. I don’t care about the exclusives so much (other than UnCharted). I don’t have friends who are purchasing one or the other at this point. That leads my choice to be one of power and price. Both consoles are weaker than my 4 year old laptop. However, I use my laptop for work, not games (well…not that many). If the majority of my games are going to be multi-platform, why would I or anyone not purchase the more powerful system if the price is the same? What about the XBox One is going to draw me to purchase it over the PS4? What are the strengths that are going to make more people purchase it over the superior hardware?

    • Stephen Perry

      There are no strengths for multiplatform titles since they will develop for the lowest common denominator in the first place, just like last generation. Sure, there may be some optimizations for to take advantage of the marginal real life power difference, but there won’t be many this generation since the hardware is far too similar in terms of essentially everything, especially once this whole ESRAM bottleneck argument dies down since it’s the exact same concept from the Xbox 360. You could make the argument for the PS4’s GDDR5 memory pool, but since it’s being used as memory instead of as a GPU it really won’t mean much in the end once developers figure out that ESRAM really isn’t that different from what they had to do with the EDRAM module on the 360, that it’s a development practice that most developers are already used to, and that Sony’s strategy of more memory bandwidth won’t really mean all that much of a difference just like it didn’t matter all that much last generation. The current media frenzy with both consoles isn’t really about the console power itself; consumers may take it that way, but this is really about Sony making something easier for developers after the nightmare that was Cell on the PS3. Of course, trying to explain this to someone who honestly thinks that the PS4 actually does have a massive power difference over the Xbox One is somewhat pointless. More power doesn’t always equate to a better software product. Since one developer has created a native 1080P title on the Xbox One, it is proof that the console is capable of that kind graphical fidelity and that the power differences really don’t mean much if a developer properly optimizes code and resources.

    • You make some great points. The only argument I would make is that developers are already making different frame rates, resolutions, and extra visual effects for multi-platform games on the PS4 so your thought that they will make them for the lowest common denominator is not holding true.

    • Stephen Perry

      The only reason they can get higher FPS and textures is because they can really just brute force their way through GDDR5 instead of optimizing properly to fit through the DDR3/eSRAM bandwidth similarity. eSRAM isn’t really as big a deal as all these developers are supposedly claiming. GDDR5 is also much more power hungry than the approach Microsoft took, and given the overheating issues they had with the Xbox 360, the design decision isn’t all that odd when taken into consideration the benefits of eSRAM in terms of power draw for the bandwidth.

    • What are your feelings in regards to the GPU differences and how they affect the textures and other graphical elements?

    • Stephen Perry

      While the Xbox One does feature a weaker 7700 series architecture and the PS4 has a 7800 series architecture on the APU, I don’t think the differences really will mean all that much in the end. Look at what was achieved when the Xbox 360 featured more GPU memory with direct access via eDRAM: PS3 was still able to optimize and produce better looking exclusive games, but the mutliplatform titles still performed largely the same. The GPU difference isn’t large enough to really “limit” the Xbox One to textures below 1080P given that eSRAM is a much better improvement to eDRAM and there’s more of it than what was in the Xbox One. The GPU difference is honestly blown way out of proportion, just like most of everything so far between the PS4 and Xbox One. I’m all for using free marketing driven off of negative press of your main competitor from a business perspective, but to make the argument that one is simply more powerful because of the number of GPU compute units available is sort of ridiculous due to other system design factors.

    • Microsoft has been able to harness the “multi-player arena” better than Sony last round (more players/AI). Do you think that will change with the difference in power this round or do you think Microsoft will still dominate? Why?

    • Stephen Perry

      Power has nothing to do with how well a game plays. Battlefield 4 still sucks on all platforms for the most part if I’m not mistaken. Call of Duty will continue to sell what basically has been the same multiplayer game since COD 4.EA Sports will continue to publish their sports titles that are basically the same since the 09 or 10 releases. Ubisoft will continue to write horribly optimized and glitched code regardless of what platform they develop for. Sony has enough exclusive franchises, Microsoft has enough exclusive franchises, each of which sells well to their target audiences. Power will have no effect on multiplayer gaming, especially when Microsoft has a cloud system that is a blank canvas for whatever the developer needs it to do. Microsoft’s one up on Sony is the fact that they know how to do software better, evidenced by the fact that no update I know of for the Xbox systems has bricked a console in the manner that Sony’s Playstation updates have on occasion.

    • I don’t see your logic. You aren’t tying power to how a game plays. Power of a system and how much it can balance has always had a tie to the amount of bots are handled within a game and affects all areas of physics, AI, etc.

      Both Microsoft and Sony have new dedicated servers for their next gen consoles so what they’ve done before has no effect on what they’re doing now in the multi-player arena.

      Your “tie” between Sony occasionally bricking a PS due to a bad update and Microsoft “doing software better” is an absolute stretch, if that. I could use the same logic and say Sony does hardware better because of all the XBox One’s that were returned.

    • Stephen Perry

      Game play is different from physics and what can be rendered on the screen; game mechanics, overall theme, thematic development, navigation through the environment, interactivity in the environment, etc. are part of gameplay, not how much physics and AI the system can handle. Even if that’s what made gameplay theoretically better, physics and AI are more CPU-intensive tasks, so the clock rate on the Xbox One is better suited since it’s a bit faster than the PS4 on that particular section of the APU. The PS4 may be able to more and slightly better looking eye candy, but so did the PS3; theoretical computing differences won’t be that a big deal when it comes to gameplay since most studios tend to focus on eye candy rather than engaging the audience. The game can look as pretty as you want, like Battlefield, but the game will still play like crap. I’d rather have a game that plays well and is engaging than something that looks pretty and is boring regardless of what gaming platform I’m on.

      Microsoft is a software company; Sony is not. Saying that Microsoft does software better is not a stretch at all since that is Microsoft’s business primary model, and they’ve been doing it very well despite all the crap they get. Both consoles make the option available for dedicated servers in their respective cloud offerings; Azure is just easier to work with compared to OpenStack. Sony doesn’t do but a few pieces of software that are actually worth using, and those are only in areas where Adobe and Avid provide better solutions anyway.

    • Sony has a rather large software division (although Microsoft’s has been around much longer). Microsoft is not flawless in that regard. I own a PC Consulting firm so I’ll be the first one to argue with you in regards to their current software being good. I could make the same argument in regards to Sony being a hardware company and Microsoft not. My business has been been booming thanks to Office 365 and Windows 8. The reason it’s booming is because of how flaky and unstable it is.

      Any which way, I appreciate your insights and thoughts.

    • Jayce Knitter

      Other than the fact that some i5’s are faster than some i7’s because of differences in cores, hyperthreading and clock speeds? It’s how information is distributed, shuffled and processed. There’s many different flavors of hardware, designs and optimizations that cause systems to be good at particular things. It’s sad you own a pc without understanding this :-/

    • Funny…I own a computer consulting firm, have been working in the Information Technology field for twenty eight years, and you think that I don’t understand how computers work? I love your convoluted answer, but it isn’t going to make the XBox perform better than the PS4. It’s quite obvious that you are the one who doesn’t understand how PC’s work.

    • rtainc

      Darren is right. The Xbox 360 and PS3 both output the same resolution anyway, and are basically the same amount of power. People still bought the PS3. The Xbox One outputs half the amount of pixels, and has DRM in it still (you cannot deny that, just look at what people have said lately.)

    • Stephen Perry

      No, the PS3 does have more raw horsepower than the Xbox 360, yet that power difference meant nothing to the majority of multi-platform developers. The PS4 and Xbox One are capable of outputting the same resolution just like the Xbox 360 and PS3. The Xbox One can output native 1080P (see Forza for example), and to my knowledge, many of the games for PS4 that were advertised as 1080P really weren’t 1080P at all, making that a developer problem. DRM isn’t anything new and Playstation does it as well, so that is a poor argument considering DRM is controlled by the developer, just like output resolutions, and was something Sony said would be left up to developers to implement (just like Microsoft did).

    • rtainc

      Yes, any console can output 1080p. However, for almost all of the multiplatform titles, the Xbox One wasn’t able to hit that same 1080p sweet spot like PS4. Anyway, the fact of the matter is, PlayStation’s DRM is negligible at best, while Xbox One puts it down your throat.

  • Fraser J Manley

    I think the fact the Xbox just has better ‘next gen’ content which makes this a good move. They have some killer exclusives and a whole bunch in production at the moment and with games with gold launching along side, it will sell bucket loads. Can’t wait for Sunset Overdrive, it looks absolutely amazing.

  • expected news.. keep going

    • xbox one > ps4

    • Jason Mounce

      So why would someone like you Follow me huh. Confusing.

    • Seriously…You upvote yourself…and then respond to yourself to give yourself more clout then upvote your other comment? Do you ever argue with yourself or just pat yourself on the back for a comment you consider wisdom. LOL!

  • Georges

    Misleading headline again.. they said only in the US… and anyway they dont take into account if Sony changes their offer which I bet they will


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