While Nintendo has reiterated its prediction of selling 20 million units of the Switch in this fiscal year on multiple occasions, the industry analysis firm Ace Economic Research Institute actually disputes this prediction- but not in the way you’d think. They expect the Switch to hit that 20 million mark, yes, and then even go over it significantly, and sell a total of 25 million units in the fiscal year.
Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at the firm, expects Nintendo’s revenue and operating income for the fiscal year to be 1.36 trillion yen and 330 billion yen respectively (translated by DualShockers). This prediction is higher than Nintendo’s own, and this mainly because he expects that 25 million units of the Switch will be sold during this time, along with sales of 140 million software units.
If we go by Yasuda’s prediction, then the total number of Switch units sold by the end of the year will be 42.79 million. That’s an insane figure to hit within just two years on the market. The Switch was at 17.7 million units of sales worldwide at the end of it’s first financial year on the market, at which point it had amassed 68.97 million units of software sales.
This means Yushida expects a little more than twice the amount of software sales in the system’s second financial year over what it did in the first. Though that might seem excessive, it’s somewhat understandable, given the upcoming launches of games like Super Smash Bros. Ultimate and Pokemon Let’s Go, Pikachu and Eevee, as well as the continued impressive performances of games that are already out for the system– so it’s not too crazy as a prediction.
What’s insane, though, is the hardware prediction. As of June 30th, the Switch’s sales were standing at 19.67 million, so as per Yasuda’s figures, the hybrid has to sell 23.12 million units worldwide within a period of nine months to meet the target he’s set for it. And again, that’s insane.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Michael Pachter believes the Switch won’t even hit Nintendo’s own target of 20 million unless there’s a price cut in the pipeline. Read more on that through here. Either way, we’ll just have to wait and see how many units of the Switch sell by the end of this fiscal year.