But, and here’s the rub—VR hasn’t actually taken off yet. There’s a whole slew of reasons it hasn’t, but the most obvious one is that there hasn’t been any reason for people to spend money on a VR set. These things cost hundreds of dollars, on top of an expensive console, PC, or phone you already need to run them—so you better have a good reason to spend money on them. 

So far, that reason… hasn’t existed? Don’t get me wrong, Resident Evil 7 and Skyrim are amazing in VR, and Superhot is transcendental. But every single one of those games can also be played without VR. Sure, VR probably maximizes immersion—but is that extra immersion worth hundreds of dollars? Probably not. And yes, there’s Astro Bot, and it’s a bespoke VR exclusive that truly shows you what you can do with VR design, and is an amazing, acclaimed game. But unfortunately, Sony’s critical failure with Astro Bot is that it’s a brand new IP. 

When you’re pushing a dramatic new kind of technology, that’s expensive to buy into, you need to incentivize people to spend money on it, and people are likelier to do it when they’re at least somewhat familiar with what they’re getting into. It was Super Mario 64 that sold the potential of the analog stick, it was Final Fantasy VII that sold the potential of CDs, it was Halo 2 that sold the potential of online console gaming. In all these cases, it was a new take on an existing, beloved property that finally got people to jump on. VR hasn’t had that yet—there hasn’t been a great new game in an existing franchise that is VR only. You can play some beloved games ALSO in VR, and you can play great games ONLY in VR—but you can’t play a new take on a beloved game only in VR. 

Which is why I think the announcement of Half-Life: Alyx will be our first look at the true market potential of VR. Here we are—a brand new take on an existing IP (one of the most beloved ones, at that, and one people have been waiting for a new game from for over a decade now), coming exclusively to VR. If this doesn’t spur VR adoption, what will?

Early indications appear to be that this will indeed end up spurring VR adoption. As of earlier this week, sales of Valve’s Index had spiked, and the headset was sold out and back ordered. And the most interesting part of this is that the Index isn’t needed to play Half-Life: Alyx—almost any VR headset, most of which are far cheaper than the Index, will do. One has to assume that sales of other headsets have also similarly spiked, if not more so. 

The question now is if this spike will persist. Obviously, this depends on a lot of things—price drops for VR sets will make them more palatable for the mass market, as an example, and follow up VR exclusives should surely see some sustenance of this surge in interest in the format. So is this it? Is this VR’s breakthrough moment? When it finally makes itself known as the future of gaming?

My answer is, no it’s not. Because there will never be such a moment. VR is NOT the future of gaming. It is A future, absolutely. I think it’s here to stay, and it will continue to grow, and offer loads of amazing games and experiences in the future. Some of the most immersive entertainment experiences ever will presumably be offered by VR only in the future. But anyone who thinks VR will ever replace traditional gaming, or even that it will become mainstream to any meaningful degree, is deluding themselves. 

The truth is, that will never happen. There are many reasons for that—cost (which will come down) and content (which we are seeing being offered now) can be fixed, but the other problems are too limiting. Families can buy a console and all sit together in the living room and enjoy a game or two there. Very few want to buy a VR headset that shuts them out from the world entirely. Yes, I know VR permits a kind of social experience that other technology does not permit—but you’re not getting past the initial barrier of convincing people to wear a headset and move dorky looking controllers around. Remember how Google Glass, in spite of its undeniably “the future is here” cool appeal, couldn’t gain traction? And that was a pair of (admittedly bulky) glasses. Do you really think a headset will fare better?

Speaking of Google, let’s talk about that. After five years, and pushes from some of the biggest tech companies in the world, including Facebook, Google, Samsung, HTC, Valve, and Sony, VR failed to gain traction. PSVR bundles at $200 with 5-6 games included don’t even move the needle. The fundamental fact that VR enthusiasts fail to account for is that VR is too intimidating for the mainstream. Your standard family will willingly purchase a game console and even maybe play games together, but no one wants to purchase a big headset that shuts them out from the world. VR is the culmination of the “fads” so to say that failed to catch on in the last ten years. Motion controls (Wii)? Full body tracking (Kinect)? 3D (PS3, 3DS)? Yes, I know that in practice VR is nothing like those, and far beyond whatever proposition they offered. But again, the fundamental barrier is convincing the mainstream that that’s true, and the only way to do that is to get them to try it, and there we run into the barrier of getting them to put on that headset again. 

So what’s the takeaway here? You’re probably getting mixed signals based on what I’ve said, but my end message is remarkably consistent—Half-Life:Alyx will be VR’s first (of many) big moment, and cause a surge of interest in the format. VR will probably start taking off following Alyx’s release in a way it simply hasn’t so far. It will be far more successful and prevalent. However, those expecting it to replace consoles, and/or ever be “mainstream” in any meaningful capacity are in for a rude awakening. VR is too exclusionary for it to ever take root amongst the masses. It will always continue to exist and be successful and offer unique and great experiences you can’t find anywhere else—but it will never be ubiquitous. 

And that’s okay. 

Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, GamingBolt as an organization.

While in terms of mass market penetration, VR is still struggling to make much (if any) headway, in 2018, it still managed to make some inroads, thanks to the PlayStation VR’s bumper year last year. Led by some great killer apps (such as Astro Bot Rescue Mission and Moss), great bundles (such as ones that included Astro Bot and Moss), and some fantastic price cuts, it seems that the PlayStation VR managed to lead the VR market to a growth of 30% year on year in 2018, according to research firm SuperData.

Of course, the starting factor for the VR market was small to begin with, so 30% growth isn’t going to make the format hit the mainstream. But it is notable because it exceeds SuperData’s forecast for the market (VR generated $3.8 billion in 2018, while the forecast was $3.3 billion). PlayStation VR sold 770,000 units in the Holiday quarter, making it the market leader in the category by far.

Oculus’ Oculus Quest headset, which is announced for this year, is slated to be the big runaway success for this year, with projected sales of 1.3 million. Hopefully, VR will continue to grow along these lines, because the medium has a lot of promise.

Sony’s excellent support for the PlayStation VR, which includes games such as Astro Bot, appears to have begun to pay off for them. SuperData reports in a tweet that the PlayStation VR was the best selling VR headset worldwide for 2018, with 1.3 million units shipped.

It beats out the Oculus Go, which came in second with 1.1 million, and Samsung Gear VR, which came in third with 600,000 units sold. These numbers do illustrate one thing—while the successful PlayStation VR is leading this market segment, the market segment isn’t too large to begin with.

However, as noted above, there have been some great games released for the system in the last few months, and hopefully they will begin to spur on adoption for the headset at an accelerated pace in the coming months. Whether that means that PlayStation VR is the market leader of a great, lucrative market or not remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/_superdata/status/1068603074619551744?s=21