its also bin 8 years since the last one, people want new stuff thats why its selling well

Given the PS4 is still supply-constrained, and the Wii was supply constrained for many months early on (I’m not sure how long it lasted, but it was definitely until early in 2007), those gradients at this point may simply be manufacturing limits. However, the average gradient for the PS4 over a like-for-like period is still stronger (by some margin). Something else to keep in mind is that the Wii really only sold well for 4-5 years, then slowed down suddenly, wheras a more traditional console tends to have its strongest sales 3-5 years into its life, rather than be tapering off then.

I’m pretty sure about it. Both PS4 and Xbox have already moved under the Wii’s trajectory in that chart by now.

I hear what you are saying but I don’t see you explaining why the market is shrinking! You just can’t look at higher sales…say it is all demand related and then say the market is likely shrinking. What makes you think it is shrinking? Nothing has slowed down to indicate that.

If anything I think it is growing just b/c of gaming demographics. When the 30-40 yr olds today played games in the 80’s our parents didn’t play with us. Today we are having kids and buying consoles for ourselves and our children. My brother in law is 50+ and he plays COD a lot! He has 3 xones and 1 ps4 in his house alone. My neighbors are the same too!

And please don’t drop the Pachter mobile market theory either. No one exist our there that says I had a console last gen but really my phone and pad games are enough now and I don’t need a new gen console. If anything the opposite is true with that….mobile games are opening people up that never played at all to possibly pick up more hard core games on a console.

If you look at a history of human predictions (and I am assuming you’re human here, but you’re reasoning is fairly standard for our species) then you’ll see it’s something we’re generally pretty bad at. There are upside outcomes for current-gen selling more than the PS2, and while they’re probably less likely than the downside outcomes, it’s all probability – there _is_ a chance, and pretending there’s not is unscientific.

You’re in denial. I guarantee you no home console will sell as well as PS2 did, let alone Wii. PS4 and Xbox started out strong because of larger supply and a hardcore fanbase, but after that sales will naturally drop off, because there isn’t as much sustained demand.

You know the Wii’s demographic did not have the game playing habits of the core gamer market. The vast majority of the Wii’s user base used it more like a totem tennis kit than a video game console.

As per Jecht, we just don’t know yet. It’s impossible to tell the future, plain and simple. VR might take off like no tomorrow and Morpheus might be the way the masses use it and the PS4 could sell 200 million, or maybe the core of gamers has dropped off a tonne and they only sell 20. We just don’t know. However, what we do know is that the data we have so far has the fastest growth of a new console generation in history – a pretty flimsy base case for the argument that the market is shrinking.

I agree with you and Titanfall is also available for the PC and in about a week it will also be available on Xbox 360 so it’s not that exclusive.

Yeah, those people buying a video game console to play video games on totally weren’t part of the video game market.