Xbox One X Will Sell 17 Million Units By 2021, According To DFC Projections

The console has a hard road ahead…

Posted By | On 27th, Jun. 2017 Under News | Follow This Author @Pramath1605

The Xbox One X looks to be a hard sell- it’s an extremely powerful and technologically sophisticated machine, sure, but it lacks enough compelling exclusives that justify purchasing it (even more so than the base Xbox One consoles, which already have this problem to begin with).

DFC Intelligence, an analyst firm, agrees, saying that it will sell upwards of 20 million units worldwide by 2022, with 17 million sold by 2021 end, bringing the total projected sales for Xbox One to 63 million units worldwide.

The problem will be in the considerable opposition that the system will face in the market by the PlayStation 4 and the Nintendo Switch. “Xbox One X is an expensive system designed to appeal to a fairly narrow demographic of gamers who want high quality graphics but do not want to spend money on a high-end PC,” said DFC analyst David Cole. “The challenge is that is a fairly small addressable market, even as sales of 4k television sets start to soar. Both the Nintendo Switch or Sony PlayStation 4 offer a very strong value proposition that consumers seem to be flocking to.”

“Many of the exclusives are fairly minor indie titles that will probably not take advantage of the enhanced graphics features of the system,” he added. “Furthermore, the leap from 1080 to 4k resolution is simply not as revolutionary as the previous movement from standard definition to high definition.”

This should lead to slower sales for the system than expected, with the PS4 and the Switch chipping away at the lion’s share of the market.

Do you personally think the Xbox One X, and indeed, the Xbox One family as a whole, will manage to carve their niche in the market? Or do you think the PS4 and Nintendo Switch will make things difficult? Let us know in the comments section below.

[via GamesIndustry]

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  • Starman

    LOL , propaganda … try harder..

  • Living While Alive

    2021 not taking in consideration of price drops and exclusives.

    Basing the future off bias opinions and the past.

    Presently, there are over 100 Xbox (& Xbox/Windows 10) exclusives.

    Not including the 22 announced @ E3 and not including the unannounced exclusives as stated by Aaron Greenbush and Phil Spencer.

    Also, not giving into consideration trade ins for the 1X nor thought given about how all multiplats will play better and look best on X.

    And there’s a huge difference between 1080p and 4k.

    When the X comes out and people can go to the Microsoft Store or to best buy to the Microsoft Store in there or any tech store that will haven’t up and running.

    And truly see the Xbox capability how I saw it for myself?

    People will purchase or trade in like it’s no tomorrow.

    500$ is nothing compared to value and bang for buck.

    • Mr Xrat

      It’s amusing watching you try to carve a silver lining out of dust.

  • Living While Alive

    Bookmark this. Worldwide by 2018 winter 10 million sales and by 2020 30 million.

    By the time PS5 comes I have 90 million console sold Xbox S/X.

    Playstation sales have already began to peak b4 the release of Nintendo Switch.

    By E3 next year Xbox will start to out sell Sony in every space except Japan.

    2018 will really show X capabilities from both 1st, 3rd party and indie.

    Plus Halo 6 yea right. System seller for sure and 4k tv will be crap cheap by then.

    Just a bunch of Xbox hate going around.

    I’ll even go as far to say 1 million sales first 48 hours.

    Bookmark it.

    • It_Is_What_It_Is


      Now, my take is that your prediction will be wrong but we will have to wait and see.

    • Mark

      When can we switch names?

    • It_Is_What_It_Is


    • Mark

      Was referring to ur Disqus username, it’s a good name. But ahh nevermind

    • Lol, I’m an XB fan first and foremost, but if you think XB1X will overtake PS sales for the remainder of this gen your kidding yourself 🙂 That said, I do think XB1X will help them narrow the gap to somewhere b/w 10-15M. which considering it’s 60M to 36M sold right now, should be considered a win.

    • heima

      Look, I wish Xbox X all the best since the competition needs to be more balanced, but I honestly doubt that your predictions will be correct.
      Also, I don’t believe that exclusive games are that important for casual gamers that often don’t even know that exclusive games exist*, however only first party games can show the true potential of the X, due to the fact that multiplat developers don’t have the time to spend on one platform.

      *funny that only 1 out of 6 PS4 gamers have bought Uncharted 4, the most successful PS exclusive so far.

    • Riggybro

      It’s about the same for Halo 5 about 1/6 (5 million).
      Sadly in general people are more interested in COD and Ubisoft sequels these days.

      Call of Duty Infinite Warfare for example has sold over 7 million alone on PS4.

      That’s why Nintendo’s and Sony’s exclusives are so important to the future of gaming.

    • Sp4ctr0

      “Sadly in general people are more interested in COD and Ubisoft sequels these days.Call of Duty Infinite Warfare for example has sold over 7 million alone on PS4”

      But now all mutiplatform games will work better on Xbox X than on any other console. Mutiplatform games always work better on faster hardware. This will increase sales of Xbox

    • Mr Xrat

      MMOs and s**ll devs. Going to have to do better than that.

    • Wei Feng

      With a salty Netbook CPU and checker-boarding sold as “true 4”
      I’m sure it will win the generation for them

    • heima

      Well, nope. Halo 5 sold 5 million copies in 4 months, when the Xbox One sold were around 20/25 million units. After more than a year the copies of Halo 5 sold are approximately 7.000.000, that makes 1/4-1/5 of the installed base (28/30 million consoles).
      Anyway, Nintendo’s exclusives are those that keep pushing the gaming industry to the next level, because they focus on gameplay and not only on the mere graphical improvements and photorealism.


      Agreed as soon as the pre-orders open up the Xbox One X will sell 1 to 2 million units in 48 hours

    • Mr Xrat

      I expect the Xgimp scum to turn out day one to buy their seventh Xbone. It’s the only thing they’re reliably good at doing, because they sure don’t buy games.

    • Mr Xrat

      Xgimp fanfiction is always the funniest thing to read. No one cares about your half-step upgrade and no one cares about Halo.

      But hey, maybe the Xbollox Slim in 2019 will start the comeback? Hahahahahah!

    • kee1haul

      See ‘PS4 Pro’ about half steps.

    • Mr Xrat

      Just need to look at a year of overhype and underdelivery for half steps, Mark.

    • Gary


    • angryguy77

      I have a prediction to add: Come 11/8, Mr Xrat will start cutting himself even more than he does now to erase the pain he feels from seeing the X1X sell like hotcakes.

  • MickaelSuarez

    Considering that the Xbox One sales seems to clearly slowing down (based on VGC estimation), 63 millions is not so bad.

    • kee1haul


  • Poseidon team

    By the time PS5 releases in 2020-2021 the world will be used to crossplay between PC, Xbox, Nintendo Switch and mobile (phone & tablets), with several games supporting this feature.

    Backwards compatibility will be a thing that most console players will value going forward to keep their library always available. Release a new console and lose all your games will be considered a bad thing. Sell a remaster of the same game on every console generation (like Sony does) will be seen as a anti-consumer thing thanks to BC.

    Xbox game pass will come to PC. The Netflix of games. For the price of two full retail games ($120, or $10 a month) users have a hundred games each month for an entire year. New episodic games will be released inside this platform and expand the possibilities of content.

    Most Sony fans will get mad that PS5 supports none of this features and requires you buy everything again (games, peripherals and PS Now for BC). The rest of the world makes fun of Sony and buys anything else knowing that regardless of the platform they can play games with their friends.

    • Mr Xrat

      PS consoles and PC started doing cross-play long before Xbox jumped out the bandwagon, and I don’t know why you expect Switch owners to carry third party games on the Xbone because you don’t buy any.

      Switch didn’t have BC at all and is currently blowing the moribund Xbone out of the water, as well as having greater purchase intention than the Xbollox does.

      There is no “Netflix for games” and trying to equate Lame Pass to that is pathetic. A more appropriate alternative is Redbox and it doesn’t depend on a list as mediocre as Lame Pass has.

      Any other excuses you want to try and make to talk up the moribund Xbox brand? RIP.

    • Poseidon team

      Pony in full denial… how sweet…

      Sony started crossplay long ago and has since long forgotten what all that means. And it’s also living in denial as you regarding crossplay and BC.

      LOL… Redbox still uses physical discs and mail… meanwhile all consumers are going digital… that’s “much better” than game pass. How old are you? 50? 60?

      For your information…

  • Riggybro


    Xbox the “console gaming brand” will be swallowed up by the Microsoft/Windows brand. It will no longer be competing directly with Sony, Nintendo but exist as an alternative in its own space.

    XBX1 will sell extremely well in the US but just average everywhere else. Xbox will become more isolated to the US.

    Now, excuse me while I download my Windows 10 update on my crystal ball…

  • Death5talker45

    Well… I am a casual gamer playing on my Xbox 360E which is 4 years old and have over 100 games…. and a backlog too… I am getting a 4K TV in about 1.5-2 years… but I am getting the Xbox One X because even though I don’t have the 4K TV yet.. All Exclusives to be release… Current Games, X360 BC games will look and play better on the X even with a 1080p TV… I can’t wait to play Witcher 3 with X enhancements on the X and Ace Combat 7 is going to be awesome… Also, Elder Scrolls VI and Halo 6 will both be out this generation and are going to be excellent on 1080p and 4K TVs with the X…. I waited to get into this generation of gaming for this console the X… A 4K Blu Ray player along with better graphics, gameplay and load times and no screen tearing with the X… many games are getting X enhancements that are already out and Xbox is becoming much more developer and gamer friendly… the X is going to be epic.. I can’t wait… I am a 48 year old gamer who since the Vectrex/Atari days and I bought the Sega Genesis as my first true gaming console… through to the 3DO and PS1 and PS2… after my third PS2 died 4 years ago I bought the Xbox360E and have not been impressed with the 8th generation till this year and I decided to upgrade to the Xbox One X and the Exclusives are coming… and all multiplat games will play and look best on the X.

    • angryguy77

      I think “experts” like this who are predicting sales are forgetting to count people like you. There were a number who never upgraded because the leap this gen wasn’t great enough. Now we have that leap and those people are going to buy in.

  • kee1haul

    That’s not bad. Plus these guys are wrong almost all the time.

  • Dougdec92

    ohk, ohk, then the ps4 wont make any sales until 2022…lol


    The same analysts predicted the Xbox One S to not sell well because of the Project Scorpio announcement yet the Xbox One S actually outsold the PS4 four months in a row and still sells very well so it’s way to early to predict the Xbox One X sales these analyses should wait until the Xbox One X launches and watch the sales for at least four months until they make any predictions

    • Mr Xrat

      It didn’t sell well. It did mediocre for those four months, exploded in the holidays because of price cuts and petered out. It came third behind a supply-constrained Switch last month. It’s over, Kirk.

  • Mike Clyne

    As far as game variety and the art and individuality of games go, Xbox as a brand was never needed. They don’t encourage creativity and are purely a money making corporation.
    All the companies want to make money, but both Sony and Nintendo have financed things artistic. Not just ticking off boxes for a bottom line.
    From that point of view, it’s not surprising if Xbox has a hard time fitting in.

    However….their competition keeps the others from getting lazy and striving to do more. So in that way, it’s good they’re around.
    This guy sounds dead on in his prediction, to me. Puts Xbox in a weird spot where they’re nowhere near the level of Sony, yet making enough profit to be perfectly fine as a company as a whole.
    I want them to keep going purely because they put Sony to keep up with their outstanding quality to their first parties and keeps sale prices on games aggressive.
    The gamer in me, who cares only about the experiences and developers being encouraged to try unique things, has no respect for Xbox.
    Which I think is many gamer’s perspective and why it’s only place it can sell moderately well is in America, while the others can sell worldwide.
    But yeah, the Xbox One X is a hard sell. I’ve thought what this guy in the article is saying since before the X was offcially unveiled.

    • Liver 4 Ever

      Just Fanboyism!!!
      Xbox Had BC
      Xbox Had Better MP Exclusive
      Xbox will Be The best Version In Games By Far ..even Pro Doesn’t Compare To X1X
      Xbox Had Better Xbox Live And Better System …I Have Ps4 And X1 …And X1 After 2017 Update Is Far Better Than Ps4 In Network and Community…

      Even When X1 Is 500$ And Ps4 Had Better Resolution X1 Sold More Than 10 M Just In 1 Year And Now Sold more than 40 M In 4 Years..X1X Will Sell Better than X1…
      How Xbox Failed if Wii u Sold Just 10 Million in 6 Years And Ps4 Vita Just 6 Million From 2012 Until now…
      Even In exclusive Xbox Had Gears – Forza Motorsport – Forza Horizon – Killer instinct Halo Sunset overdrive – Sea of thieves ori – crackdown -Quantum Break …
      Xbox Better In Controller
      Xbox Better In Download Speed
      Xbox Streaming up To 1080p 60 Fps to Windows 10 ..(Ps4 720p And Worse In Quality
      Xbox Better In Sound
      ….And X1X Is Far Far Better Console In Graphics Until At Less Q4 2019 When Maybe PS5 Release ..And I think Ps5 Will Release 2020 ..
      X1X Has 4K Texture Ps4 Pro Not ..
      X1X Will Play Games In Native 4K …Ps4 Not …
      X1X Will Be Better in Effects And Graphics ..
      X1X Will Enhance Old Games like high end PC …
      X1X Support 4K Blu-ray ..Ps4 Pro Not …

      X1X Support HD Cable 2.1 ..And Pro 2.0
      …You Just Hate Xbox …If Xbox Failed You Will Not Even Talk About It …

    • angryguy77

      No creativity? Console online gaming is where it is because of them.
      FPS are where they are because of them.
      Pro-consumer things like EA Access and Game Pass are there because of them.
      Console HD are there because of them.
      Just because they don’t offer JRPG’s, it doesn’t mean they are not creative or have anything to offer.
      What has sony done that so innovative anyway? Please tell us.

    • kee1haul

      You know all corporations are in it to make money…..anyway. Just add up those numbers, 36m sold, 17m X1X adds up to 53 million. That’s saying X1S will sell 10 million in FOUR YEARS.

  • Mr Xrat

    Hahahahahah! Yeah right. Halve that, slice a bit off and you might get a more accurate number. The price tag and reality of checkerboard 4K 30fps seeping into public consciousness means this thing will have a decent holiday then fade into irrelevance like the S did. Bookmark this.

    • kee1haul

      Do some simple numbers (I appreciate you might struggle). 63 million X1 in total by 2021, 36 million already sold. Add 17 million to 36 million, and you get 53 million. That means BASE Xbox will sell 10 million in 4 years. 2.5 million per year, when it has already done three times that rate. This whole thing is wrong.

    • Mr Xrat

      Probably that 36 million number was made up by Xgimps paid by MS France to do marketing, Mark.

    • kee1haul

      Your conspiracy level is on par with Trump.

  • stopbeingafanboy

    I don’t think so. They must have something up their sleeves we don’t know about.

  • Dafuq Iswrong

    Best combo ever. PS4+switch

  • angryguy77

    I’ve been saying this all along as well. The x1x wasn’t about “winning’ this gen, it’s getting them set to be more competitive next round.

    • Mark

      Yup. Of course Microsoft aren’t stoopid enough to think they can come back….but they do want that “hardcore gaming” perception back like the 360

  • heima

    Yep, they don’t disclose number. Except for those 5million copies of Halo 5, the rest are assumptions based on the little we know (e.g. One is selling more than 360 during the same timeframe) and NPD sales figures.
    Yes, I’m considering buying a Switch next year, and a X when I’ll buy a 4k tv. I love Halo and I like all the services available on Xbox (Game pass, BC, etc), so why not?

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