2018 Will Be A Year For Xbox Scorpio, PS4 Pro And High-End PCs, Not The Rumored PS5 With The 10TFLOPS GPU

Why PS5 launching in 2018 may not be happening.

Posted By | On 30th, May. 2017 Under Article, Graphics Analysis


The console generation is likely dead. Between the PS4 Pro, the Xbox Scorpio and the One S (not to mention discount-priced older SKUs), the idea of having discrete, generational leaps in console capabilities is perhaps no more valid. What does this actually mean for gaming? On the one hand, iterative generations make things a lot easier for developers—there’s no need to learn an entirely new workflow every five years or so—it just becomes a matter of scaling up (or scaling down) your existing work. Moreover, iterative console development puts consoles on a similar track to other hardware—things now work much the same as they do in the PC and mobile spaces—you get a device that will cater to your basic needs in the long term, but won’t always offer the latest bells and whistles.

On the other hand, iterative consoles have the potential to bringing technological progress in games to a slow halt. Apart from the fact that many of them run worse (we’re looking at you, Mass Effect: Andromeda), just how many titles from 2017 genuinely look better than titles from 2014? But it’s not just about the visuals. Going through my backlog of overlooked seventh-gen titles, what really struck me was just how little fundamental gameplay loops have changed. It’s hard to believe that Quake and Crysis are separated by hardly more than a decade, when, ten years on, the majority of AAA releases still struggle to outdo Crytek’s finest, whether in terms of raw visuals or in terms of emergent gameplay. Iterative console generations aren’t going to help in this respect and, with the exception of a handful of PC-centric titles like Star Citizen, progress has evidently flatlined.

Analysts have, however, already started projecting the launch of the PS5 (if that’s what it is to be called), in 2018. Considering that the PS4 Pro is really just a PS4 that runs games at higher resolutions, what would a prospective PS5 deliver in terms of the experience? And, with an Q3/Q4 2018 launch timeframe, what kind of hardware would we be looking at? Damian Thong, over at Macquarie Research, believes that a hypothetical 2018 Playstation will pack a GPU with 10 Teraflops of compute power.

For starters, is a 10 Teraflop PS5 even viable within the time frame we’re talking about? Assuming that Sony contracts out to AMD again, the situation is, well, dicey. The thing is, AMD doesn’t currently offer a single GPU product with greater 10 Teraflops of compute. Vega is very close to launch, but we’re still looking at a June-July timeframe. We’re talking about a flagship card that doesn’t, at least for the moment, even exist. Going by AMD’s own roadmap, Navi may or may not happen in 2018 in the PC space, meaning that variants of Vega will continue to be the highest-performing AMD graphics offerings that year. While it’d be fantastic news, we just don’t see a console manufacturer sticking a $500-plus flagship part into a console and then sell it at reasonable rates. And let’s not even get started on power consumption.

It is highly unlikely that Sony will make use of a relatively new flagship part to power a 2018 PS5, as this would completely fly in the face of their recent business decisions–both the PS4 and the Pro are largely based on midrange, off-the-shelf hardware. Off-the-shelf Vega would be a significant cost centre and would likely push the console’s price above that of the Xbox Scorpio. A custom solution is even worse, because additional R&D costs become embedded in the total. Even then, we’re only talking about the GPU side of things.

If the PS5 is to be a generational upgrade, it needs to be capable of more than just slightly better eye candy slapped on top of the same gameplay. For deeper simulation, better AI and physics, a faster processor is key. We’d say that Ryzen is a very likely bet for a hypothetical PS5 CPU. However, the key factor again is timing. Ryzen is still new. And Ryzen is still (relatively) expensive. Sony would need to keep its bill of materials in the $400-500 range if it wants to sell a hypothetical PS5 at a somewhat mainstream price-point. The main reason that current consoles have such weak processors is budgetary constraints–last-gen consoles were sold at a loss to ensure that they packed powerful hardware, but that isn’t the business model Sony is currently following.

While the Xbox Scorpio will put significant pressure on Sony, what the PS4 Pro has demonstrated is that people aren’t necessarily looking for native 4K experiences. Whatever you have to say about checkerboard rendering and dynamic resolutions (and we do have a lot to say on those), at the end of the day, the Pro’s “4K” image quality is largely good enough for the majority of 4K TV owners–it is noticeably better than 1080p output at least. Irrespective of the Xbox Scorpio’s considerable hardware advantage, if it ends up running the very same multiplats, it remains to be seen as to whether or not it’ll offer an easily discernible advantage over the Pro, at least from the average customer’s point of view. Scorpio and the PS4 Pro are most certainly going to be running the very same multiplats. Sony doesn’t need to one-up Microsoft next year with a console. If it does, it risks alienating a good chunk of the Playstation audience: Pro owners who will feel shortchanged for their purchase, and PS4 owners who are now in for premature obsolescence.

While analysts are in the crystal ball-gazing business, this is one prediction we’re just not very hot about. Apart from the confusion of having to support three Playstation models at once, a new console next year would cost money and it’d be a big risk in a market that’s already occupied by the Pro and in the future, possibly by Xbox Scorpio. We don’t doubt that there will be a PS5 (There probably won’t be a PS6 because of the rise of cloud game streaming, but that’s another matter). It’s just the timeframe we’re leery about. 2018 will be a year for Scorpio and PS4 Pro. And, of course, high-powered PCs.

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  • The Knight

    The only people hyping up the PS5 are the insecure “gamers” who need to have the highest resolution but won’t go to PC.

    • Sp4ctr0

      Some people wait for PS5 because PS4 Pro was a big fail:

      – no Blu-Ray 4K

      – hard to program dual GPU 2.1 TFLOPS instead of single core 4.2 TLOPS for compatibility with old PS4. Old games need patch to unlock both part of multi-GPU

      – only 8 GB of memory: 3.5 GB for system, average 1.5GB for game logic, 3GB for textures. It can’t compete with 12 GB scorpio which have 2x more memory for textures.

      – no HDMI 2.1 (no Amd FreeSync 2.0)

      – no true 4K resolution

    • Riggybro

      Yes… and COVFEFE!

    • shinningserpent

      lol!

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Some people wait fo scorpio because the xbone was a big fail:
      -overpriced
      -Kinect fiasco
      -Failue to reach 1080p on most games
      -Dissapointing exclusives
      -cancelled exclusives
      -Absent 2017 exclusives

      Oh, but scorpio will just adress the power aspect of the xbone problems, so poor x bots! joke will be on them!

      #xbobehasthelowestratedexclusives

    • Mark

      Why can’t us bots simply be excited for a great looking system? Jeez man. I get it, some bots are throwin the whole power thing around now true, but for most of us we’re just pumped

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Ok, good for you! Hopefully they’ll deliver on what you are hoping for and make you one happy gamer!

    • Mark

      Thank u kind sir!

    • Mark

      Eh Quim, u know what, I understand why u replied to Sp4ctrO; it does sound like he’s pooping on the Pro. I get why u responded, it’s kind of a trigger post. Just know I wasn’t attacking u bro

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Nah, it’s all good! I never take it personally on the Internet to begging with, we are all strangers after all.

      But I do respond the very same way people are talking, and I didn’t feel it like an attack, l even liked what you said and how you said it, it felt honest!

      Anyways, happy gaming!

    • Mark

      Imo once Scorpio drops (being that it’s the last system to release of the bunch) I think there will be enough in retail for us to choose from for awhile; The Switch, Scorpio and Pro. I think we need another 3 years of just pure great games before we move on to next gen

    • Psionicinversion

      hey i bought myself an asus PG279Q when i was really drunk saturday night got it today. its glorious, £634 damage though. No backlight bleed/really minimal and no dead pixels 😀 so its a very good one.

      Might be quite miffed if asus launch there new 2560×1440 quantum dot monitors for about £800 in a few months but thats the price you pay for buying stuff when drunk.

      Gsync is glorious, only need to stay north of 40fps for a 60fps like experience, no screen tear nothing. im a happy chappy. credit card not so happy haha

  • Riggybro

    “…progress has evidently flatlined.”

    I feel that is true for many AAA, the indie scene meanwhile is kick’n but.
    While the predictable sells well (just like in movies and music) I think the next progression in gaming will be the AAA scene taking cues (and risks) from the indie scene in terms of story/plot and inventive game design.
    Many of the Ubi’s and EA’s are getting horrendously stale.
    When things like The Last of Us, Journey came out last gen I truely thought we were about to hit a turning point but sadly next-gen has just been mostly more of the same from the big guns.

    PS5 won’t be released 2018 – no way – but I bet there will be a “leaked” PS5 rumour around this time next year.

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    • Eddie Battikha

      Sony has been working on PS5 since 2015, it’ll easily launch Fall 2018. http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2015/05/so_looks_like_sonys_already_working_on_the_ps5

    • AuricGoldfinger

      lol yeah keep dreaming. Anything to downplay the significance of Project Scorpio. The PS4 is selling extremely well for Sony currently, they will not stop that train by releasing a PS5 in 2018 lol. 2020 more likely..

    • Mark

      Areed, I’ve seen some super interesting games on PC that would never touch consoles due to their, unorthodox design. Things are gonna stay this way sadly imo

  • DA-ROOSTER

    PlayStation fans know that the PS4 PRO is gonna take a beating from the Xbox Scorpio in terms of power/ performance so they are praying for a early release for the PS5 but even Sony knows that releasing a PS5 which would mean starting next-gen early and it will actually hurt their brand and put them at a disadvantage how? Well if the PS5 launches next year it would realistically be 8 Teraflops with 16G GDDR5 and won’t even be using full Ryzen so the PS5 won’t actually be a generational leap over the Xbox Scorpio

    • Eddie Battikha

      Exciting times ahead, we’ll see what Sony has in store for us about PS5 Fall 2018. I easily see a Customized Ryzen, A Customized Vega 11 and 16 GB of GDDR6.

    • Night Fall

      What makes you think it would be great if $ony comes out with a new console so soon.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      You couldn’t be more wrong mate!

      Yeah! games will look better on scorpio, but what games exactly? the big multiplats will have extra content for the ps4 version and the exclusives…well there is no contest there!

      Ps4 games look great right now, so no rush for a ps5 just yet!

    • Night Fall

      Umm not all multiple platforms games will have exclusive content. So it doesn’t make sense that you rebuttal his remarks. Did you say all of this just to be heard and because you disagree?

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Hmm just the very biggest ones and most important in the industry… Mind you!

      And why didn’t you address the exclusives advantage? Oh, cause you couldn’t, cause I’m right!

      So it does make sense!

      See, if you had put a little more attention in the message, you wouldn’t have to ask a person if they disagree when they start a message with the specific combination of the words: “you couldn’t be more wrong”… Smh

    • Night Fall

      Look you come on board to get what ever is on your chest off. You wasted your time, you don’t have a point to your first comment and for the second one.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Nope!

    • Gamez Rule

      Correct.

      As for Xbone exclusives I’m still waiting for E3 as nothing within the first *Six Months* has been released by MS on Xbone that can be classed as a full console exclusive title.

      Just glad the family also use the PS4-Pro nowadays as at least that way we get to play games made for the console and get to use the exclusive content in other games.

      Xbone has lost it’s way if you ask me and Scorpio will not change anything. Rather have games for a system I bought into than waiting for an E3 show to see what we might get….Might get meaning hopefully games shown don’t get canned like other titles did shown at MS E3’s.

  • SalvagedXBot

    Great article. In the end i think it makes sense that Microsoft is coming out with the Scorpio because the lack of power the xbox one has compared to the ps4 and ps4 pro. I don’t think the Scorpio will be such a significant upgrade from the ps4 pro that Sony needs to answer with ps5, a small price cut will do just fine.

  • DarthDiggler

    Its been 5 years.

    Will you be publishing an article explaining why you were wrong when they ship the PS5 in 2018?

    I don’t know for certain when it will ship, I do know for certain the PS5 is the best option to rain on Xbox’s Scorpio parade and that seems to upset Xbox loyalists that think Scorpio is going to usher Xbox back into its hay days.

    The best thing for MS to do would be to use Scorpio as a dark horse for next gen. Just make Scorpio Xbox Two or Xbox 720, who knows what MS will call it they can’t effing count. Given all the stink Xbox One has as long as the next Xbox is 100% backwards compatible with Xbox One it won’t really matter to Xbox fans and it could potentially close the door on the bad rep Xbox brand got the past 3-4 years.

    • shinningserpent

      you’re the one that seems to be bothered by having the weaker suckstation.

    • Mark

      Uggh, it’s like they enjoy drinking our tears lmao. Except we’re simply excited to get a system with so many updated great features

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      You are NOT the only one bothered by having…NO EXCLUSIVES!

      #xbotstarvation

  • Omar

    I’m thinking Sony will definitely make a PS5 but MS won’t be making an “Xbox 2” or whatever. I think all of their systems will be Xbox One from now on with some derivative to help tell the difference. Scorpio is the start and most likely a whole new console with MS going in the direction of PC’s.

    I say this because it makes sense with what they’re doing. Windows 10 is said to be the very last version of Windows with updates forever as they need it. They just launched a new Surface Pro and removed the numbers. So there won’t be a Surface Pro 5 or 6, just like every Apple device outside of iPhone has no numerical value to tell the difference.

    So basically, I think MS is planning to support all the systems going way back. Their Scorpio dev kit allows them to create a Scorpio version and XB1 version at the same time while cranking the settings up and down as needed to test optimal performance on both systems. Plus the dev kit has twice the RAM (24GB) and more compute units than will be in the retail Scorpio. I think they’re gonna keep doing that and implementing new setups allowing all games to be played on even the oldest XB1 but at really low settings.

    I think Sony will follow suit on this eventually if its not already in their plans. It keeps almost all their consumers happy since they won’t be forced to upgrade to play the latest but would be if they wanna play it the best way possible.

    • AuricGoldfinger

      “I’m thinking Sony will definitely make a PS5 but MS won’t be making an “Xbox 2″ or whatever.”

      FALSE! Spencer says otherwise…..

      http://gamingbolt.com/phil-spencer-comitted-to-console-gaming-already-planning-what-comes-after-project-scorpio

    • Omar

      Not sure how that link proves my theory wrong. I never said they won’t be making another console, just that they will all be linked in the future. I really believe that there won’t be generational exclusives for a while to come. For instance, where we can only play Forza 5 & 6 and FH 3, Halo 5 and GoW4 on XB1 and above, we won’t likely have the same limits on any Xbox system in the future. If they made a Halo 8 (hopefully not), it’ll be compatible with the original XB1 but at a much lower spec. So tell me how that article proves me wrong. Also note that I didn’t state it as fact. If u see what u quoted from me, it starts with “I’m thinking……”

    • AuricGoldfinger

      I see what you’re or what you were implying now. In other words, you’re saying Microsoft will make more consoles. They just won’t be generational. Gotcha!

      Hopefully I’ll find out more about their future plans when I’m at E3 in two weeks.

    • Omar

      Yup. Can’t wait for E3.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Oh, but Phil spinster changes his statementes to convinience as soon as he needs to!

      Remember the :

      “play the games, not the resolution”?

    • AuricGoldfinger

      Everyone changes their statements, although Phil still plays games, not resolution. Remember for what the narrative was for the past 3 years, when Sony had the more powerful console? I’m sure Mark Cerny does…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7903147cacf790697265665c05590488b5bd3906d25dc92b6acda28aff0a7080.png

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      If, so wrong!

      1. Not everyone changes their statements! When exactly did Cerny did it? He’s so convince on what he said that last year made a system that has higher resolution!

      2. Who ever said Phil doesn’t play games? He doesn’t make them anymore for sure. But he said you should focus on the games and not the resolution… Until last year of course!

      3. If you already know he changes his statements to convenience, then why do you use one of his many, many statements as evidence?

      It is naive and illogical at the very least.

    • AuricGoldfinger

      When it’s said and done, Shuhei Yoshida/Mark Cerny stated 1080p allows you to be a better gamer. Microsoft was criticized for the past 3 1/2 years for their Xbox One console being underpowered, and 900p machine. Now that they’ve responded with a True 4K machine, the narrative has changed to Xbox not having any games lol.

      If the gaming media, gaming community, and playstation nation wasn’t shouting 1080p over 720p/900p all over the internet, maybe Scorpio wouldn’t exist. Either way, Microsoft has responded with Project Scorpio, and it will be the most powerful console ever till the next console iteration from Sony and Microsoft.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Who changed the narrative? Cerny? No? Then don’t spread lies!

      Oh, so suddenly MS only does what “gaming media” asks? Sure! That must be it! Then how come they haven’t disappointed with their exclusives all this gen? Are you saying that because the bashing they have had all this year we will finally make good exclusives?

      Scorpio will be more powerful for sure! No contest there, as there is no contest that the ps4 has had and will continue to have more and better exclusives!

    • AuricGoldfinger

      Playstation fanboys changed the narrative. I recall at the start of this gen, Microsoft provided the AAA exclusives, but that wasn’t good enough because they weren’t 1080p. Sony on the other hand provided plenty of indies.

      I have owned both consoles since launch, and from my experience I couldn’t stop playing Resogun, Second Son, on my ps4 at launch. Anyhow, better is subjective…

      2013:

      ps4 =
      Resogun
      Knack
      Killzone
      Outlast
      Second Son (which I platinumed by the way)

      xb1 =
      Dead Rising 3
      Forza 5
      Titanfall
      Killer Instinct
      Ryse: Son of Rome
      Crimson Dragon

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      So now it’s the fanboys? Not the media? Not Cerny? Do we agree Cerny didn’t change his statements?

      Now, yes, it’s true that the 1st year x1 had a slight advantage in exclusives, but not that big, cause the x1 exclusives were mostly good but not great, but PS4 has the resolution advantage and better 3rd party deals.

      But the thing is, the ps4 advantage in exclusives since last year changed A LOT! Not only there were far more games, they were better, GOTY winners! Lots of games over 85, while x1 only had 2 and really disappointed with recore, quantum break and dead rising 4.

      Now, this year? Is not even a competition, this 4th year for the x1 has been the worse for any console in the last 20 years! Even the dying wiiu had more exclusives last year!

      So yeah, the narrative has changed, but not only cause the Scorpio will have a little advantage in resolution, but more importantly, cause the exclusives balance had a huge change!

      Try to make another list of exclusives, just using the ones this year and you’ll see what I mean.

  • heavenshitman1

    Just skimmed the article, but as things are currently looking, Switch has a chance of being 2018’s system, 3 consec months its mashed sales, some analysts now projecting better than Wii success

  • marc Berry

    Over looked by most but PS5.6.7.8 if based on X86 will be weaker than any MS made DX12 console. Why is that? A PS 5 with a Ryzen CPU will all ways be weaker than a MS made console made with the same hardware.

    “Processing draw calls – effectively telling the graphics hardware what
    to draw – is one of the most important tasks the CPU carries out. It can
    suck up a lot of processor resources, a pipeline that traditionally
    takes thousands – perhaps hundreds of thousands – of CPU instructions.
    With Scorpio’s hardware offload, any draw call can be executed with just
    11 instructions, and just nine for a state change.”

    1. Sony can’t use DX12
    2.Sony can’t use the DX12 hardware
    3.The hardware is patented for MS only.
    4. “perhaps hundreds of thousands – of CPU instructions” Added to Sony’s CPU.

    • Dante Jenkins

      1. Sony has their own proprietary API, they don’t need dx12.
      2. DX12 is not hardware
      3. DX12 is not the greatest thing since sliced bread
      4. Unless you are a developer, you are throwing out random numbers

    • Eddie Battikha

      U couldn’t of said it any more truthfully.

    • marc Berry

      Truth is there above if you wont to see it.

    • marc Berry

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RE2hNrq1Zxs

      1. Video states hardware DX12 into the GPU.

      2.DX12 will one day be where DX11 was at the end of it’s life but much better.

      3. Sony’s API will not have hardware made for it on the GPU command processor.

      “We essentially moved Direct3D 12,” says Goossen. “We built that into
      the command processor of the GPU and what that means is that, for all
      the high frequency API invocations that the games do, they’ll all
      natively implemented in the logic of the command processor – and what
      this means is that our communication from the game to the GPU is
      super-efficient.”

      http://www.eurogamer.net/search.php

    • Eddie Battikha

      Another Rookie Blue, misinformed and misguided.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      No need for those complicated numbers if they can even count to ten inthe most important category…GAMES!

      What are you playing this year?

  • Psionicinversion

    think i might of jump the gun a bit on saying it doesnt have much. it might actually be to much. going have try some dark games tomorrow. but 1440p image quality is awesome, big step up from 1080p and its 27inch

    • Mark

      27 inch, wow that’s dam good

  • QUIMICOMORTAL

    False! the console generation is not dead until Sony says it is dead!

    They have the best selling consoles of all time and the best selling console today!

    In fact, nintendo and MS will be happy if next year the combined sales of wiiu,
    switch x1 and scorpio equal the ones pon PS4, so dont get ahead of
    yourself!

    2018 is too early for ps5 that is for sure, but 2019 or 2020? Oh yeah!

  • Mr Xrat

    Switch, PC and PS4.

    Lil’ Xbox? Not so much.


 

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