And who can blame him?
We’ve heard some rumors claim that a PS5 is coming next year- the claim was made by an analyst, the very same who also successfully predicted the PS4 Slim’s debut alongside the PS4 Pro last year, which is why his word has been given any credence. But… doesn’t it make very little sense for Sony to launch a PS5 next year, two years after the PS4 Pro, five years after the PS4, and when the PS4 is doing so well for itself, too?
According to Michael Goodman, who is the director of digital media strategies at Strategy Analytics, it makes very little sense for that to happen. Which is why he is skeptical that it will. Speaking to We Write things, Goodman said, “My original thought was that you’re going on four year cycles, not two year cycles. I’m skeptical that they will launch a new console in 2018 after a two year time frame. I don’t think it is going to move to a two year cycle. [Sony] still has to pay back R&D. I mean there is a lot of expense that went into building the Pro. Are you going to undercut that market before it has made money?
“Strategically, launching a new console in 2018 gives you, in all likelihood, the upper hand because you’ll really be able to either equal or usurp Microsoft. If Sony does [launch a new console in 2018], how much improvement are you going to get? Microsoft is already pushing the envelope pretty hard.
“Let’s just play devil’s advocate and say Sony does push it to 2018. Are they going to be able to leapfrog Scorpio and by how much? Is it going to be enough to make a difference? Scorpio being 40 percent more powerful than Pro is a significant jump. Fast forward a year from now, are you really going to be able to get a 25 percent increase? Are you going to be able to get a 40 percent increase over Scorpio? Probably not.
“So now begs the question, are you going to basically short Pro in order to gain an equal or small advantage over Scorpio? Oh and by the way, Scorpio will then start to get the price advantage on your anyway…It’s almost like for Sony, you’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t. If you keep riding things, Microsoft has got an advantage on you that they’re going to be pretty merciless about. At least in the next year, there’s not much Sony can do about it.”
I can’t say I disagree with the line of thinking much- if a PS5 is to come, I don’t see it coming next year. That would be a very foolish move on Sony’s part.