Jefferies Analyst Believes Switch Sales Will See A Slowdown This Year

Nintendo has a lofty target of selling 20 million units of the Nintendo Switch for this fiscal year (which means through to March 2019), which would bring the total lifetime sales of the Switch to nearly 40 million in just two years on the market- but there has been some skepticism about how Nintendo plans on doing that, in light of what is viewed as a softer lineup than their relentless cadence of new, AAA game releases last year.

The concerns are widespread enough, apparently, that even Jefferies’ Atul Goyal, widely considered to be the most optimistic of all analysts when it comes to Nintendo’s prospects on the market, has slashed his price target for the company by more than 10 percent, attributing his depressed outlook on a concern that Nintendo’s sales for the Switch in 2018 may not meet expectations.

In a note to investors, Goyal noted that while in the long run, he remains optimistic about Switch, the recent share price crash Nintendo suffered is ultimately reflective of market expectations about the Switch’s potential for the year.

“Market expectations for Switch, as reflected in stock price, have turned from robust growth to no-growth in a matter of three months,” Goyal said. “We believe continued sales of Switch over the course of this year and next could very well prove this current thesis of Switch being ex- growth wrong as well. But given the sustained selling pressure, perhaps the short-term market is right about Nintendo (for a change) and perhaps it doesn’t grow in hardware sales.”

All of which is to say- in the short term, he feels that sales of the Switch will continue to suffer a slowdown, and is advising investors accordingly. That said, he feels that in the long run, the Switch will continue to do well- and maybe even this year, when it comes down to it.