Nintendo Switch 2 Will Sell 4.3 Million Units in US in 2025, Analyst Predicts

Circana analyst Mat Piscatella says he is "expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge."

Posted By | On 09th, Jan. 2025

nintendo switch oled

Nintendo has confirmed on multiple occasions that it will officially unveil the successor to the Switch before April 1, and multiple reports and leaks in recent days all seem to be pointing to an announcement being imminent. Amidst the rising anticipation for the new console, Circana analyst Mat Piscatella has chimed in with some interesting sales estimates.

Taking to BlueSky, Piscatella has said that as per his projections, the Nintendo Switch 2 (which, as per reports, is what the console is officially going to be called), is expected to sell 4.3 million units in 2025 in the US alone, which will account for roughly a third of all console hardware sales in the US for the year (not counting portable PC devices such as Steam Deck). Piscatella says those projections are based on the console launching in the first half of the year.

Interestingly enough, despite the Switch 2’s impressive first-year sales in the region, the analyst expects the PS5 to be the highest-selling console of the US for the year of 2025 regardless. He also says that, as far as the Switch 2 is concerned, he expects it to face stock shortages “for several months after a significant early demand surge.”

How long it’ll be before Nintendo chooses to officially lift the lid on the Switch 2 is the big question on everyone’s mind right now, but it seems like the wait isn’t going to be that long. Stay tuned for more updates in the coming days and weeks.  

Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) – I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).

Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will.I still expect PlayStation 5 to rank 1st in overall hardware units sold in the US during the year.

Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:11:43.061Z

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