40 million sold in three and a half years would make the Switch a reasonable success by most measures.
It looks like analyst firm DFC Intelligence is reasonably confident in the upcoming Nintendo Switch- in a new report that they shared about the console’s prospects, they noted that they expect the Switch to have sold 40 million units by the end of 2020. These would be the sales projections for the platform a little after it has spent three and a half years on the market.
According to the report, DFC Intelligence noted that while initial demand may be limited due to limited shipments and a somewhat paltry launch lineup outside of Zelda, demand is expected to pick up significantly. That said, DFC Intelligence head David Cole did note that, “The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.”
This makes the Switch a far more successful product for Nintendo than the Wii U, Gamecube, or even Nintendo 64 (since its sales in just this period are projected to overtake total lifetime sales for those consoles), and puts it en route to overtake even the SNES’s lifetime sales. At the projected sales, it also implies that the Switch will end up outselling (or at least, outpacing) the Xbox One, which is currently estimated to have sold 26 million units worldwide, with rapidly declining YoY sales.
On the other hand, this does place the Switch lower and slower than the PS4 – which is to be expected, since the PS4 is breaking every record in the books with its sales – and also Nintendo’s own 3DS. While it is to be remembered that 40 million is not the lifetime sales projection for the system – just what it will have sold three and a half years in – its sales at that point are projected to be lower than what the sales for Wii, PS4, or any previous Nintendo handheld were at similar points in their lifecycles.
This would be a relief to Nintendo, then, in a sense, as it keeps their product viable in the market- but I keep thinking of just how much higher the Switch would have sold had it not been priced so high.