Nintendo Won’t Hit 20 Million Shipment Target, Says Michael Pachter

Nintendo’s 20 million units shipment target for this financial year is the stuff of legends now. While there has been reasonable skepticism regarding whether or not they will be able to hit that lofty goal, the strong performance of the Switch over the last few weeks has led to renewed confidence that they might just pull it off. Certainly, Nintendo themselves seem to be pretty certain that they will.

However, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter feels like they will not, in spite of the strong performance the Switch posted over the last few weeks. Speaking to Forbes, Pachter said Nintendo will fall “just short” of the goal, shipping 16-17 million units for the year instead. That number, he feels, is fine—it’s still a year on year growth, and lets them maintain their momentum.

“The share price tells you that the market doesn’t expect them to hit 20 million,” Pachter said. “However, if they sell 15 million per year, they’re in good shape and they shouldn’t see a disruption in their momentum.”

It’s a far cry from when he said the Switch will only sell 8 million for the year (which was always an absurd prediction). Whether or not Nintendo ends up hitting that 20 million number remains to be seen, of course—but it seems people are more confident about this now than they were before.