‘The standout developer is Nintendo.’
The Nintendo Switch is out, and it is so far a huge success for Nintendo- but the question is, just how much of one can it be in the long run? With especially the extremely high end Xbox Scorpio launching later this year, does the Switch have much of a future as it gets left behind hopelessly again as far as tech goes?
According to Wedbush Securities’ Michael Pachter, the answer is yes- the Switch is going to sell, it will sell a lot, because it is essentially a fantastic, high end Nintendo handheld. While it will never likely become the first system of choice for most people, those same people who bought a 3DS to complement their PlayStation or Xbox will now look at picking up a Switch to do the same, and to play high end Nintendo games.
‘The Switch works really well- you’re essentially playing with a controller and screen right in front of your face,’ Pachter said on his web show (SIFTD Games). ‘It is a handheld- the cool thing about it is that your games work on the television as well, but the truth is, it’s a handheld, it’s a great handheld. So, I actually think the Switch is going to end up selling about as well as the 3DS. It’s at a higher price point- but ultimately if it comes down to $149, then ultimately, 3DS style 13 million units a year is possible.
‘If you are a PlayStation or an Xbox owner, and you don’t own the other one, there’s a reason why. And the reason is, you like the first party software better on the console you do own. The standout developer is Nintendo- and even though they aren’t significantly more productive at putting out titles than Microsoft or Sony, pretty much all of their games are giant superstars. So Zelda, you just can’t compare Gears of War to Zelda, it’s just- Zelda is among the highest rated games of all time, if not the highest rated game of all time. So the truth is, I think the Switch will always be the second console of choice.
‘And based on where we are in the console cycle, with Sony having announced 54 million PS4s sold, and Microsoft being around 27 million Xbox One units sold – they haven’t announced it, but the number is around there, since Sony is apparently outselling Xbox 2:1 – you have 80 million people out there who bought these, with not a lot of overlap. So Nintendo is 80 million households behind. For Nintendo to think they will beat out this lead and become the first console of choice- not so much. They are very highly likely- these 80 million people who bought a PS4 or an Xbox One are people who by definition had $300 or more to spend on a console. And odds are, the next $300 they have? Those go to the Switch.’
In the end, it sounds like the fact that the Scorpio has to compete with the existing Xbox One and PS4 may count against it- whereas the Switch is unique enough in its proposition, with an entirely separate set of games, that everyone looking to buy a second system might be tempted to look into it, to complement the PS4 or Xbox One as their primary system. In the long run, then- it seems as though the Switch is set to do well, and certainly better than the Scorpio.