Destiny House of Wolves DLC Might Arrive in May, Major Content Drop More Like WoW Expansion

Analyst Michael Pachter talks about future content plans for Destiny.

Posted By | On 11th, Mar. 2015 Under News


Destiny_House of Wolves

Bungie’s Destiny has become an unprecedented success for the company despite several issues that have arisen since launch. Given that many gamers expected a sprawling space epic, akin to Borderlands meets Halo, the low amount of content has been a major issue. This was somewhat mitigated with The Dark Below expansion but for a $20 DLC, it included one new Raid, a few new Exotics, three new Story missions, one new Strike, three new PvP maps and an increased Light level cap (not to mention periodic Nightfalls and Weeklies that can only be played if you have the DLC). While this sounds good on paper, it pales in comparison to what other MMO-like games have offered. So what’s coming next?

GamingBolt recently spoke to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter about his thoughts on the same. Activision has already confirmed that a sequel will be happening but what has Pachter heard regarding other future plans for Destiny, especially the major content update rumoured to be happening in Fall?

“You know, Activision’s management told me that they’re – they and Bungie – are trying to keep Destiny’s revenues about flat every year this year and going forward every year until Destiny 2 comes out. It’s going to be more than just map packs and levelling up. This major content drop is going to be more like a World of WarCraft expansion, so probably more like a $40 ten level cap change as opposed to a $20 two level cap change. That’s really what they intend to do.”

Pachter also said he’s unsure about the frequency of the $20 expansions but that there may be at least a four month gap between each one. “I don’t know how frequently we’re going to see the $20 versions, but my guess is that you’ll see two $20 expansions and one $40 expansion each year, so kind of pace it out that way. Every four months, you get something like that. So I think that the goal is to keep that 3.5 to 5.5 million daily active player group spending $60 to $80 a year.

Destiny-House of Wolves_Reef

“Maybe you can sell the $40 expansion and one $20 expansion to each of them. That’s like selling them a new game every year, and Destiny maybe ends up generating 5 million units at $60. I think that’s their plan, and I think if you really like Destiny, that’s just like buying Call of Duty every year. That’s not that big a deal.

“I don’t think Destiny is ever going to be as big as Call of Duty, but I think the plan is, as people get next gen consoles – there were 3.5 million daily active players back in November, they said it was higher now, my guess is 5, like I said – and I think their goal is by year end it’s 7. And by year end ‘16, it’s 9, and then by year end ‘17 it’s 11, and then the next Destiny sells 20 million copies and then they start again.”

This isn’t exactly a new business plan that Bungie and Activision stumbled upon. EA has been selling games as a service for quite some time now with FIFA’s Ultimate Team mode. “You know, I think that it’s a smart and new business model. I mean, it’s essentially taking the MMO subscription model and turning it into a pay-as-you-go for content model, and it might work. I think it’s an interesting new business model. You’ll hear all the publishers talk about something called “games as a service”, essentially that means subscription games. They would really love to morph into that, but none of them wants to give up that $60 initial sale. So FIFA Ultimate Team is that. They keep selling you stuff but you need to buy the game in order to play it. Destiny is that, it’s just that the stuff that they’re selling you is in a big package that costs $20 or $40.

“So, yeah, I think you’ll probably get two expansions at $20 this year and one at $40, and as I said, I think they’ll probably be timed, something like April, August, and November. You know, something like that. Whatever comes out to four months.”

Destiny-Awoken-Queen

Currently, Bungie has given a Q2 2015 release to the next expansion, House of Wolves. Between April and June, when could it possibly arrive? Many players at this point are assuming June. However, Pachter states that, “They might only do one because they did one in December, so the game launches in September, the content drops are going to be in December, May, and November, but then the next year I think it will probably be January, June, and November. I think they’re going to try to space it out so they always keep you engaged.

“That’s the point. They learned from World of WarCraft that if you do a content drop every two years, you lose subscribers and then they all come back when there’s a new content drop. Not all, but many of them come back. With Destiny, they try to keep you going.”

There’s also the matter of only one major update – patch 1.1.2 – being left for Destiny prior to the release of expansion. If it arrives in April, then House of Wolves will still be out in May or so one would hope. What are your thoughts on all of this? Let us know in the comments below.

Update: It should be noted that Pachter’s thoughts regarding Destiny receiving a WoW-like expansion each year (or in this case, the Fall) along with smaller expansions is speculation based on what World of Warcraft does in terms of level caps and raids, which make up content that could be monetized. Activision has confirmed flat revenues from the game in 2015, 2016 and 2017 barring any new release but how it would reach that goal has yet to be revealed.


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  • IronCloud

    I think the initial plan is a sound one. It’s not easy to come up with new and unique content. The only trouble I see (in future updates) is repetition and originality. If your expected to drop new content every 4 months, it might not gain the full attention that the release will need to take root. Though if anyone con pull it off It’s Bungie. I feel they’ve taken a geat spin to this and good strides to make the content more substantial and fulfilling, for example bringing in the Guildwars 2 loremaster and uping the size of the content drops. I am more than willing to pay the $60-80 a year to continue playing it’s a good game and it’s fun to play, even with it’s monotony. ~Cheers

  • i think this is bs and im tired of sitting around playing the same strikes raids etc we need new content and we need it now more than later ..

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  • John Nemesh

    My thoughts? Find another “analyst”. Pachter has been wrong so often, it’s a shock these days when he is actually right!

  • jov jov

    Interesting article. Im one of the people that stopped playing when i reached max level the game is incredibly boring when you reach that point. i dont actually plan to come back until the major content drop. Realistically TDB is hardly an expansion. When you take a level and make every one go in reverse and put a new boss in the end and call it a strike.. sorry thats not new content thats rehashing. I live in australia and that dlc was over 30$… luckily i purchase from the US psn fk dat. The game game is fine but the major content drop is the only good thing. I also think its disgusting that if i didnt buy the TDB im locked out on seperate days for NF/D events. I know no one important will ever read this but anyone that disagrees is exactly the type of ppl bungie wants. If you have a moment watch this, it blows it right open and explains the BUSINESS model. No wonder games like gta have sooo much content, cause theyre not made every year like activision games

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DJfYbwr00oA

  • bradley knight

    Change the leveling system similar to diablo 2 and add customizable armor looks (transmog) And customizable colours! Add sparrow races and events. Allow to customize the sparrow! And looks of your gun like new gun skins! Then i would be addicted!

  • Paul Clive

    I stopped playing Destiny months ago, all my friends did too. The moment we realized we’d been duped into believing this FPS is an MMO. From the pathetic and disgustingly limited content of the first expansion we knew we’d been tricked. Really, raising the level cap by 2, in an MMO!? WHAT IS THE POINT OF THAT? The straw that really broke the camels back was finding a rare Titan chest piece that looked identical to my Legendary Astrolord plate. I still check on Destiny news though in hope that the devs might come to their senses and start treating this like a real MMO.

    If this was a real MMO, with light level increases of 5-10 each expansion and making it so I don’t have to spend hours and hours grinding the Raid to reach max or NEAR max level (and some SUBSTANTIVE story content) I would be back in a heartbeat. The gameplay is great but a game like this belongs in the hands of a responsible set of people who actually want to deliver a fun product that they can grow and profit from for years. From that first expansion it doesn’t look good for the future of Destiny. Its sad too because the market is ripe for a game like this.

    We on console, especially those of us who came to the Next Gen already, don’t have much in the way of MMORPGs with loot and the like. Other than the console version of Diablo 3 there isn’t a whole lot of games I can get on my Xbox 1 that have that level of replay value or would draw me back to do a daily strike with my friends or help a friend level a new character. The sort of thing you log into almost every day and stay a dedicated fan of for 2, 3, 4 years and then anxiously await the sequel for it. Build a game that lasts.

    You’d think that this is what they’d want to do, WoW style expansions that give the game some longevity. Or, ya know, they can keep teasing the few diehard fans this game has left with more empty BS expansions.

  • ambleThought

    Bungie – give us Planet packs, every 2 months a new planet with a new raid, new patrols, new missions and new strikes. Easy to monetize, something to look forward to for the players, and more planets!. How many Destiny players thought of great ways to make this game better yet Bungie could not?

  • Elliott Kearns

    I think some people expect so much from video game developers now that even when they put out a great game like Destiny, fans just want more and more and more. I don’t think they realize how much time and effort it takes, not to mention man power, to build a game of this magnitude. Everyone loves GTAV, for example, not including the GTA Online portion of course… if you take all the content in GTAV and the map, it would be about half of what Destiny offers, or maybe less, in terms of content and replayability. I’ve spent 156hrs on Destiny, and probably 50 on GTAV. Sure it would be nice to have more content, and it is coming. But I love what Destiny has offered so far, and I’ll continue to play the game until the second one comes out.

    • Joshua Sanderson

      I agree with this completely! This game was released with the knowledge that it was going to be a long term implementation. Sure the advertising was over the top, but honestly that’s what it takes to get most people’s attention these days. And even if it was close to the hype that it generated (which most of came from what we thought and decided the game would be versus what it actually is, not some shady marketing conspiracy) we would still have pages of people complaining about some imperfect aspect of it. It’s a fun game. It has potential, let’s see how it goes before giving up so easily. I spent twenty bucks today between lunch and a snack, you can’t tell me something that refreshes an already fun game isn’t worth that? Maybe not for the sweaty try-hards that live to pwn people in the crucible, but for the rest of us. I agree that a little more customization is in order, but also can accept that some things take time. Grind may suck, but if it was quick and easy, how long until it ends up back in its box? Everyday has challenge and opportunity (even if it’s-gasp-helping lower level characters get thru the game).

    • dingle_berry

      Exactly! Everyone wants all the weapons handed to them or to be rewarded based on skill, the beauty of RNG is the fact that I have the same luck as someone half as skilled as me or some one twice as skilled as me. The fact that i cant speed run through the game and collect everything intentionally is whats keeping me going. Yes the grind is there and can be boring but I do my bounties with other players to make patrols and story missions fun, i save the raids for being serious. The game has so much to offer socially and is the best game i own, and I own pretty much all ps4 releases.

      I will agree that the dark below has become stale already and HoW needs a release sooner tham later but once they get a regular 3 or 4 month DLC schedule everything will be great.

      I have only put similar hours into one other game and that was oblivion, it doesnt hold a candle to destiny. When im not playing it im thinking about loadouts, joining the forum discussions and reading up on it. I no longer own a PS4 its just a Destiny Player, lol

    • AdamJaramillo

      You realize they literally ripped sections out of the finished games and are now selling it as dlc, right? And that they showed aspects of the story, gameplay, trading system and a bunch it other cool stuff they left out before the release. Stuff they’ll probably sell you later. The fact is. There’s plenty of better more fulfilling games for less money. Destiny may be pretty good, or not bad, but not worth what they’re selling it for.

  • Chuck Green

    Doubt I will ever come back to Destiny. They’ve just mishandled everything and I won’t be getting destiny 2 either. Just one person’s opinion.

  • Michael Wilson

    I don’t appreciate a strike to be so hard it takes 6 people. More story missions please…

    • UiscePreston

      None of the strikes take 6 people. All strikes can be soloed. Now, the *raids* being more complex – therefore more rewarding – require a team. If you can’t muster up 5 other people in the spirit of cooperative gaming to play through the raids, well, then this is not the game for you. Demanding story missions because of your own hangups is infantile. Parts of this game are multiplayer – deal with it or go play Candy Crush.

    • Michael Wilson

      Well I think that you need to play left 4 dead and bungie needs to create story missions. If you wanna play with 5 other people, go right ahead.


 

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