Each Call of Duty game sells a lot more than the previous one (at launch), and this is an unproven fact till now but it has to end or at least decline. Ben Schachter of Macquarie Securities has revealed that the series could have peaked last year itself and Call of Duty Black Ops 2 may go on to sell a lot less than its successor.
Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan echoed his comments and added: “[CoD] was (and probably still is) the best multiplayer experience available, [but] Battlefield multiplayer probably cannibalized it a little bit, and this year, Halo and Medal of Honor could cannibalize CoD a bit more. Next year, another Battlefield plus the Respawn and Bungie games probably cannibalize it a bit more,” he told GI International.
“There’s nothing wrong with 22 million units sold, or with 19 million or 16 million. CoD will remain the best selling game (at least until GTA) and Activision shouldn’t be concerned if it loses some players at the margin. They created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them.”
Another analyst believes CoD has already peaked: “Activision has provided financial guidance assuming that Call of Duty is lower this year than last year, so I think that is a rational comment, especially given the tough console market right now,” he said.
“Also, if new consoles are coming next year, that is typically a disruptive period for game sales, and that could drive sales lower as well, at least temporarily. The bigger question I think is whether the franchise (or any franchise) is in a continuous period of decline. Personally, I don’t know which competing console title would take so much share from Call of Duty.”
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