Chris Dring, who previously headed up GamesIndustry.biz, recently did a Q&A on the Install Base forums, where he shed light on some interesting details about the numbers behind gaming subscription services like Xbox Game Pass, and what they might mean for developers and publishers.
Responding to a question about whether sentiments at studios and publishing companies about subscription services has changed, Dring talks about his own anecdotal experience, while also talking about how games are affected differently depending on whether they are blockbuster releases or indie titles.
One of the biggest takeaways is that developers and publishers expect to lose 80 percent of their sales on Xbox if the game will be available on Game Pass. This indicates that most Xbox players are opting to play through the latest releases through Game Pass rather than buying the games.
“Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox,” wrote Dring. “That’s the figure that gets thrown around. It’s less if it’s a big mainstream release, but generally… look at how low Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox.”
Games that are multi-platform, however, seem to benefit from coming to Game Pass, thanks to more players joining in on the Xbox side also impacting sales on PlayStation. This likely applies to multiplayer titles with cross-play, where a stronger online player base leads to more sales of a game.
“But… if it’s a game on multiple platforms, it can be beneficial,” said Dring. “That surge in players on one Xbox can have a strong impact on sales on PlayStation, for instance.”
Dring goes on to talk about his own thoughts on subscription services like Game Pass, and how that affects developers. He points to Xbox indie titles that aren’t on Game Pass, and how that leads to losing out on revenue.
On the other hand, Dring also points out that the exposure games get from being on a service like Game Pass brings a lot more players to the title than it would otherwise attract. This means that players that are subscribing to Game Pass for Call of Duty might also check out a small indie title that they wouldn’t have otherwise bought.
“I am actually torn on subscription,” Dring explained. “I believe it can lead to lost revenue, and services like this make it harder for everyone else. Try being an indie game on Xbox right now that’s not on Game Pass…”
“But also, getting people to play your game in 2024/2025 is so, so, so hard,” he continued. “And subscription gets games in front of lots of people. We know from data that there are a lot of people that only play Call of Duty. And if some of those people decided to get Call of Duty this year via Game Pass, and those very same people took the opportunity to play some other Game Pass games, games they wouldn’t have otherwise played… it’s hard to argue that’s a bad thing.”
Dring then talks about the future of subscription services for games, pointing to the lack of growth for Xbox Game Pass for example. He also talks about how many players don’t use Game Pass because some of the most popular games out there are free-to-play.
“As for trajectory… although subscriptions have a decent audience, there’s not been too much growth recently (we’re waiting to see that Call of Duty impact),” said Dring. “In a world where the biggest games are free, and hundreds of hours long, the idea that the majority of gamers will be accessing their games via a subs service seems fanciful.”
Over the years, Xbox Game Pass has seen a steady expansion of its available catalogue, with January bringing with it titles like the original Diablo, as well as UFC 5. Competing with Game Pass is Sony’s own subscription service in the form of the higher tiers of PlayStation Plus.
