Nintendo Switch 2 – Analyst Believes There Are 6-8 Million Units in Stock for June 5 Launch

Equity research house Pelham Smithers Associates based this on the total number of entries in the recent Japan-only lottery.

Posted By | On 25th, Apr. 2025

nintendo switch 2

Nintendo recently kicked off pre-orders for the Switch 2 in several regions, and while the company hasn’t revealed any figures as of yet, an analyst believes it likely has between six and eight million units available for the console’s June 5 launch.

With Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa recently revealing more than 2 million fans had taken part in the lottery pre-order system in Japan alone, Pelham Smithers of Japan-focused equity research house Pelham Smithers Associates believes that this likely accounts for around one-third of the overall pre-order figures. This comes from the user base of the original Switch in Japan equalling around a third of the overall user base of the console worldwide.

“As Japan accounts for a third of the global Switch installation base, it implies 6.6 million pre-orders globally,” said Smithers, according to Bloomberg.

It is worth noting that Furukawa also apologised in the same update, stating that there will likely be several potential buyers who have taken part in the lottery that may not get a Switch 2 on launch.

“On April 2, we announced the details of the Nintendo Switch 2 and began accepting applications for a lottery sale on the My Nintendo Store,” wrote Furukawa (translation via X). “As a result, we received applications from an astonishing 2.2 million people in Japan alone.

“However, this far exceeded our prior expectations and greatly surpasses the number of Nintendo Switch 2 units we can deliver from the My Nintendo Store on June 5.”

Furukawa did state that Nintendo is taking steps to try and mitigate this issue and that it will be ramping up production of the console for later batches. In the meantime, those who partook in the lottery but weren’t selected for pre-orders don’t have to worry about signing up for it again, as they will automatically be enrolled for the next lottery.

“Furthermore, we are planning to produce and ship a substantial number of Nintendo Switch 2 units moving forward,” he wrote. “We sincerely apologize for the time it will take to fully meet your expectations and kindly ask for your understanding.”

Buyers trying to pre-order the Switch 2 in the US and Canada have also seemingly been facing issues due to immense demands that online retailers like Best Buy and Target aren’t able to keep up with. Several buyers took to X to post in frustration about technical issues they were facing in their attempts to pre-order the console.

The Nintendo Switch 2 is priced at $449.99. Until Fall 2025, the console will also be available as part of a bundle alongside launch title Mario Kart World, priced at $499.99.


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