With Nintendo having recently unveiled the Switch 2 with an announcement video, one of the biggest questions that the industry wants the answers to is how well the console will do on release, especially since the original Switch was such a massive hit. According to IGN, several analysts have spoken about the Nintendo Switch 2’s potential success, including NYU Stern’s Joost van Dreunen and Circana’s Mat Piscatella.
The overarching theme of the analysts’ predictions is that, while the Switch 2 will no doubt be incredibly popular and will likely sell quite a few units quickly, the success of the console might not reach the heights of its predecessor so early.
In a statement, van Dreunen points out that, with the Switch 2, Nintendo is once again leaving behind technical specifications to instead focus on its own releases to propel its consoles. He also points out that the new design of the console will likely help bring in a wider audience as well.
“Nintendo’s approach to differentiation appears carefully calibrated to maintain platform continuity while delivering meaningful improvements,” said van Dreunen. “Technical specifications may matter less than Nintendo’s proven ability to create compelling software experiences. The original Switch demonstrated that revolutionary gameplay innovation often emerges from creative software design rather than raw hardware capability. I expect the new design to appeal especially well to the first 25 million early adopters eager to upgrade.”
Piscatella talks about how the Switch 2 being a bigger and more powerful console than its predecessor will help attract an audience, but reaching a new audience for Nintendo might still prove challenging. He points out that the original Switch was a massive success thanks in large part to the circumstances surrounding its launch, and the uniqueness of the hardware itself.
“The challenge is that the Switch has been a breakout success,” explains Piscatella. “It is an outlier in many ways, including how much it has sold and for how long it’s been selling. Some of the games that were released for it are, years later, still among the best-selling games each and every month. Can a successor that does not change the formula significantly really have a shot at repeating or expanding on that level of success? Well, it’s possible, but not probable.”
van Dreunen predicts that the Switch 2 will likely sell between 15 and 18 million units in its first year. However, he also points out that the potentially higher price tag for the new console and the possibility of new tariffs affecting prices in the US may adversely affect console sales.
“Surpassing the Switch’s remarkable success demands masterful execution across multiple dimensions. Nintendo must continue expanding its entertainment ecosystem while maintaining its core gaming excellence,” says van Dreunen. “The convergence of gaming and broader entertainment, exemplified by the Mario movie’s success, provides a promising pathway. The company’s careful balance of innovation and accessibility and its expanding distribution channels create the potential for broader market penetration than its predecessor.”
MIDiA’s Rhys Elliot mentions that the potential for more games coming to the Switch 2 with strong support from third-party developers might help drive sales. While Ubisoft has been one of the biggest third-party supporters of the Switch 2 with its titles, more companies might jump in on the consoles, especially for some of their older titles that didn’t make it onto the original Switch.
“The Switch 2 offers up a springboard for third-party developers to extend the life-cycles of their game catalogues, promising engagement and revenue boosts for third-party developers big and small,” says Elliot. “It will be an opportunity for EA, Ubisoft, and the like to extend the product life cycles of their older PS4 and Xbox One-era games.
“Speaking of which, Xbox and even PlayStation have been [launching more] games on the Switch. I expect this will ramp up on the Switch 2 as these companies continue their off-platform strategies. I can already play Halo on my Steam Deck. I expect I’ll be able to play it on my Switch 2 one day, too.”
The Nintendo Switch 2 doesn’t yet have a release date but launches in 2025. While Nintendo hasn’t yet announced any new games for the console, its Switch 2 announcement video seemingly teased a new Mario Kart title, which supports more players per race. The console will also be available for demos in select cities with to more details be revealed in April.
