PS5 Release Forecast for Fall 2020, Quicker Incremental Upgrades Expected – NPD Analyst

At Sony’s recent Corporate Strategy Meeting and IR Day events, Sony Interactive Entertainment CEO and President John Kodera talked about how the PlayStation 4 was entering the final phase of its life cycle. In the midst of this, The NPD Group’s analyst Mat Piscatella shared his own views on Twitter about when the next PlayStation, the PS5, could launch.

First off, Piscatella predicts a release in Fall 2020 or later. He noted that this represents a “perfectly normal cycle length” and even if the next generation was mentioned, it means nothing when compared to the upcoming content. That being said, he does expect more incremental upgrades to arrive in a quicker fashion, operating on a 1 to 2 year cycle as opposed to 4 to 7 years. This will better reflect what’s happening with other technologies.

Finally, Piscatella spoke about the surprise some had expressed at Kodera’s statements about the PS4’s life cycle. “Current cycle started in 2013. Of course we are entering the final stages of it. We’ve only been through this whole cyclicality thing seven or so times before. How is this even at all surprising.”

Regardless of whether there is a PlayStation 5 in development or not, it won’t be announced at this year’s E3. Sony will instead focus on four core games – The Last of Us: Part 2, Spider-Man, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushima. The presser will take place on June 11th.

I’m forecasting PS5 no earlier than fall 2020, which would mean at least 3 more holidays of big releases to enjoy on the platform, and a perfectly normal cycle length. Just because a next gen is mentioned is meaningless to the breadth and depth of content that is coming.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018

In the future I do expect pace of incremental upgrades to happen much more quickly, on a 1-2 year cycle instead of 4-7 in order to better mirror what happens in other tech lines. Lots of benefits with more frequency.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018

Current cycle started in 2013. Of course we are entering the final stages of it. We’ve only been through this whole cyclicality thing seven or so times before. How is this even at all surprising.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018