Pachter: Sony’s Latest Forecast Suggests PS4 Price Cut Incoming, May Not Outsell PS2 In The Long Run

A rather sensible prediction.

Posted By | On 28th, Apr. 2017 Under News | Follow This Author @Pramath1605


The PlayStation 4 is firing on all cylinders, and its sales over the last quarter have been nothing short of stunning. It makes sense, too, given just how wonderful a quarter the system has had with so many high profile new releases.

But it looks like Sony has no plans of letting the PS4 slow down, either. They have forecast 18 million units sold for the next one year, which is a crazy amount by any estimation. We decided to ask Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Securities, if Sony can achieve this target, and if the PS4 may be on par to match or even exceed the PS2 at its present trajectory.

“I don’t think it will outsell the PS2, mostly because the competition from Xbox and Switch will soak up too much of the addressable market,” he said. ” Yes, if they price the PS4 correctly, they can sell another 18 million, and I think the forecast suggests that there is a price cut coming.”

Given that the Scorpio is launching later this year, Switch’s phenomenal success, and that Sony will likely be dropping the price of the PS4 Pro and PS4 in response to that, I can’t say I find myself disagreeing with Pachter here.

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  • The 18M forecast this year is less than the 20M sold this past fiscal year, which means Sony is predicting a slowdown in growth. That is either due to competition from Switch and Scorpio, or they think they’ve reached market saturation. If it’s the latter, then units sold will continue to decline significantly in the next 2-4 years.

    • Holeybartender

      We are in the midway of the PS4’s life-cycle,of course it’s sales are about to slowdown. Isn’t that why we have a Pro in the first place?

    • Wrong! By that logic XB1’s or any consoles sales curve should also be slowing down at the midpt of the generation, but their growth has continued to increase. Same with PS3. It started off slow, but growth continued to grow until the end.

    • Mr Xrat

      That comeback’s just around the corner, isn’t it?

    • I don’t think XB1 will tie PS4, like PS3 did with XB360, but I think it can close the gap to 10M give or take 2M in either direction. That should be considered a win considering the supposed 2:1 sales ratio that has happened so far…

    • Note5

      Its 3 to 1 by now

    • No it’s not, give me a break, lol.

    • Note5

      Oh Yeah. 🙂

    • greatnessIsaLIE

      Nah ps5 is around the corner the Scorpio won’t have enough time to do anything before this Gen is over.

    • J.j. Barrington

      Isn’t that when there’s usually a price drop?

      The market has grown quite a bit since the PS2, so why would you think saturation would be under 80 million, especially since all of last gen’s consoles hit that mark, and there’s quite a bit of people that moved from the Xbox to PS4?

    • Hvd

      pachter is mr.obvious

  • Michael

    That’s the fear of scorpio working it’s magic already.

    • Dougdec92

      Seriously, I thought MS should be fearing the switch, Scorpio got nothing on Sony, unless it has an enter the matrix feature

    • Mr Xrat

      Yes, price cuts is what happens what hardware reaches a saturation point at that RRP.

      How long before the first for the Shitpio? A month? Heh.

    • Michael

      Then what happened to Vita? Its all but dead and had price cuts the first month and never “saturated”…lol # checkerboardisthe new1080p

    • LifeOnMars

      It still outsold the WII U. The thing that stopped it being more successful is the very expensive memory cards.It should have had better ds4 compatability for remote play.A well built console with a great screen let down by Sony’s support.Still selling OK worldwide but dead in three USA.

    • Hvd

      lol 8.4 tflops

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      which wont sell 18 million even on its 1st year!

      Ps4 is in a race with the best selling console of all times, while the xbone and scorpio combined wont even reach the 360 numbers! (wich is not even among the top 5).

      Pft! some magic!

    • J.j. Barrington

      I wonder how many of you guys actually buy into the stuff you say.

    • Marty8370

      LOL

  • Riggybro

    When your yardstick is PS2 sales – you are doing pretty, pretty good.

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    • potedude

      So how many PS2’s is that?

    • greatnessIsaLIE

      I doubt they’ll catch the ps2 or even the ps1. The ps5 is about to release and end the generation in a year and a half.
      If ps4 can get to 90million before the ps5 comes out that’ll be a miracle.
      I wonder if the ps5 will outsell the ps4 or ps2.

  • DA-ROOSTER

    Analysts are scaling back the PS4’s sales forecasts lol

    The power of the Xbox Scorpio is already effecting Sony and it’s not even out yet

    #FearTheScorpio

    • Holeybartender

      You’re an idiot. The slowing of a console’s sales is the whole reasoning for the Pro and Scorpio in the first place.

    • stopbeingafanboy
    • Mr Xrat

      Kirk Da Moron struggling with reality again.

    • Dougdec92

      And the power of “not having them games”, will ……

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      The power of the Xbox Scorpio wont even help xbone to catch 360, let alone the ps4!

      #StillwaitingforANYTHING!
      #xbotstarvation!

    • greatnessIsaLIE

      The Scorpio is more powerful than 60million ps4s combined. As a gamer sales don’t effect you but a power advantage will. One you can use and touch the other is just a number. Would you rather have the best selling console of all time or the most powerful console of all time.
      I want the better one.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      Uf! You started so well only to end up making a fool of yourself!

      Sure! Scorpio WILL be more powerful than ANY one of those 60 million of ps4, but COMBINED? That’s retarded, as just 2 ps4 pro combined are already more powerful than Scorpio.

      Now, ps4 is a console you can touch and play TODAY! Scorpio? You can’t do ANYTHING with Scorpio today, Scorpio is just a name! And a false one as you don’t even know it’s real name. So the superiority ps4 has over Scorpio today will be forever bigger than the one Scorpio will have.

      And, real gamers (and anyone with just a hint of gaming knowledge) know the best console is not the one that sells the most, nor the ones with more power, the best console is the one with the best games!

      And, if we talk about games… Well, I have school… Ejem, reminded you many times, ps4 have more games, better games and more diverse games than the x1! And that’s if we compare the whole gen, cause of we analyze this year alone, yikes! There’s really no competition!

      Right now my advice for x fans would be to adjust to xbox new reality, it will no longer be the eternal distant second, as things look today, they will have to make an effort to not fall so behind the switch.

      Welcome back to school my friend, always a pleasure!

    • greatnessIsaLIE

      Haha sorry I just wanted to use my pony logic to argue for the Xbox.

    • Marty8370

      If Crapbox sales slow any more they’ll stop……………LOL

  • Hvd

    hey pachter way to make an obvious guess..lol.pachter say the sun will rise in the morning…lol

    mr obvious.

    • QUIMICOMORTAL

      And that xbone and scorpio combined wont even reach 360! let alone the ps4!

  • Tomaterrrx

    Why do people have the need to mention xbox here?

  • Note5

    So the sales ratio is 3:1


 

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