Given that PS4 and Xbox One are now entering the final years of their lives, while the Switch is entering its prime, and given that the Switch has a hell of a lineup planned for this year, including heavy hitter franchises like Pokemon and Animal Crossing, most people probably already expect it to do better than any other system on the market.
But just in case there was any doubt, the experts, too, think that the Switch will be the highest selling console for 2019, coming ahead of PS4 and Xbox One alike. Speaking to GamesIndustry, Piers Harding-Rolls, IHS Markit said, “Switch will be the best selling console in 2019 as PS4 and Xbox One shift into the late stage phase of their sales lifecycles. We could have several hardware announcements next year: Sony and Microsoft’s next-generation reveals, and we may get more details on how Nintendo aims to plug the gap in its portfolio left by the declining 3DS platform. One option is to do nothing and stick with the current Switch strategy. That simplifies the platform strategy but may not be the most commercially efficient. I also think we’ll hear more about a next-gen PSVR in 2019.”
Mat Piscatella of the NPD Group agreed, saying that he sees the Switch as having the largest market share in the US in 2019, on the back of Pokemon and continued performance of Switch evergreens.
“I have Switch achieving more than 35 share of hardware unit sales in the US in 2019, with Pokémon and continued strength of Nintendo’s evergreen franchises driving the performance,” he said.
As I said, at this point, the PS4 and Xbox One are nearing the end of their respective lives; now in their sixth years, most people who want to buy the systems have bought them, and while Sony will undoubtedly stimulate some interest thanks to some great exclusives lined up, on the whole, sales for them are now bound to slow down.
On the other hand, the Switch, about to enter its third year, will reach the prime of its life, and also be buoyed by an incredibly strong lineup of exclusives and third party games alike, that should help sales immensely. The combination of these two factors means that the Switch will almost certainly be the highest selling system of the year—which is not something you should be surprised at, given that the Switch is currently the fastest selling system of the generation.