Wedbush Securities analyst offers his take on potential revenue from Red Dead Online.
Rockstar Games’ Red Dead Online, the multiplayer component for Red Dead Redemption 2, has big shoes to fill. With the success that the developer has had with Grand Theft Auto Online, it’s a given that it wants Red Dead Online to repeat the same success. But how much revenue does it potentially stand to gain?
Though predicting how many monthly active users it could have is tough, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter expects at least $10 per yearly active user in terms of revenue. Speaking to GameSpot, he said, “I think RDR Online will certainly be successful. Revenues from GTA Online peaked at around $125 million in the December quarter, and are still around $100 million per quarter through three quarters this year, so GTA Online is annualizing around $400 – 500 million per year five years after it initially launched.”
“I doubt that RDR Online will generate [as much revenue per user as GTA Online], but think that $10 per user per year is likely (similar to what we see from Hearthstone, Overwatch, League of Legends and Fortnite).”
If Red Dead Redemption 2 sells 20-25 million copies in its first few months with a good 10-15 million users engaged with Red Dead Online, that could work out to $150 million per year. But considering how much Grand Theft Auto Online brings in, shouldn’t Pachter’s own estimate for yearly active user spending be slightly higher?
He notes, “My skepticism is clearly uninformed, as they may make this the best online experience of all, but I think that the setting makes success at that level less likely. Nothing wrong with the old West, but it isn’t as compelling as riding your helicopter to your nuclear bomb facility that was funded from your meth lab.”
Regardless of whether players find Red Dead Online more appealing than GTA Online or not, there’s tons of hype for it (and, of course, for Red Dead Redemption 2). Rockstar hasn’t revealed its monetization model just yet, but the assumption is that Red Dead Online will adopt the same model is GTA Online. It could end up completely different though, for all we know.
Red Dead Redemption 2 is out on October 26th for Xbox One and PS4. Red Dead Online will launch as a public beta for those who own the base game in November.