Traditional Console Cycles Are Over, Says NPD Analyst

The Xbox One X and the PS4 Pro have really changed the game, as far as the paradigm and landscape of the console gaming market go. Speaking on Twitter, NPD analyst Mat Piscatella noted that the traditional console cycle, which has been a mainstay of the gaming landscape for the last 30 years, is now at an end, thanks to the success of the iterative consoles that Sony and Microsoft introduced this generation.

These iterative consoles have led to accelerating sales for the PS4 and Xbox One alike, even as they complete five years on the market, a point where console sales traditionally begin to slow down. Their success, then, seems to imply that in terms of market purchasing patterns, the Xbox One X and PS4 Pro have changed the game; as far as their success goes, it is likely Sony and Microsoft alike will want to continue this model going into the next generation.

That iterative consoles should become the norm, and end discrete generations, is a point I have argued for a very long time now, so I am glad to see that the market has embraced this concept whole heartedly. I can only hope that the upgrades will be meaningfully spaced out, and improved, going forward.

Now, due to the iteratives (Pro and X) and bigger consumer response to promotion, we're seeing those normalized curves be no longer useful. Xbox One sales being up so dramatically in its 6th calendar year, for example, or PS4 setting new records.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) November 20, 2018

"Highly unpredictable" was a poor word choice. That implies randomness, certainly not the case. Just a higher range of error in forecasting, and allows for far less precision today than in gens past.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) November 21, 2018