Fallout 4: What If It’s Not Announced At E3 2015

Bethesda’s E3 conference might not give you what you want.

Posted By | On 03rd, May. 2015 Under News | Follow This Author @Pramath1605

fallout 4

I think we are all expecting Fallout 4 to be announced this E3, right? I mean, it makes sense- it has been seven years since the last numbered entry in the franchise, and five  since New Vegas, Bethesda alternates between Elder Scrolls and Fallout, judging by their pattern last generation (and Skyrim launched in 2011, meaning the time is ripe for a new Fallout now), and they are holding a full fledged press conference, which they have never done before. This would imply they have something major to show, right?

But just for a minute, let us assume that it is not Fallout 4. It is likely that it will be, but let’s assume that it is not. Let’s assume that it is an Elder Scrolls VI. Let’s assume that it’s a brand new IP. Let’s assume that it is a litany of new games that they are going to release this year, that they want to highlight. Let us assume that Bethesda is hosting a press conference not to launch Fallout 4, but because it now considers itself a ‘big’ publisher, the likes of EA or Ubisoft, and it wants to highlight its entire portfolio.

What impact would this have? One would want to assume that fans would rage, that they might boycott Bethesda products, that they would take the publisher up to task for toying with their hopes like this for so long, but let’s be honest- would that really happen?

For instance, if Bethesda were to announce an Elder Scrolls VI instead of a Fallout 4, do you really think there would be any measure of a successful boycott? Remember, Skyrim is the highest selling non Pokemon RPG of all time, selling 20 million copies.

Then also, consider that while you may personally care a lot about Fallout 4, Fallout isn’t exactly a big seller- the last estimate for Fallout 3 had it pegged at 5 million copies sold, worldwide, across PS3, Xbox 360, and PC. That’s not exactly a small number, but compared to Elder Scrolls, it’s not something that demands immediate attention either. If you were Bethesda, would you rather make a sequel to a 20 million selling game, or one that sold a fourth of that?

It’s not even just about Fallout or Elder Scrolls- consider Bethesda’s position here. It is a developer that manages to release a major product once every three or four years at most. That is not the most sustainable of propositions, economically speaking. It is vital for them to have a more assured and steady lineup than that, which is what their recent publishing partnerships have done for them. If they had the chance of establishing Wolfenstein, The Evil Within, Dishonored, and Doom as regular franchises that got them steady income, in addition to the millions generated by Elder Scrolls and Fallout, would they not want to do just that? Could this E3 not be a ploy towards exactly that end?

I’m not saying that Fallout 4 won’t be announced this E3 – I couldn’t possibly know either way – but I am saying that one should not get their hopes up for the imminent announcement of a Fallout 4 either way, not until we are sure that it actually exists. In fact, there is a lot of evidence lending credence to my theory that Bethesda intends to highlight its upcoming lineup, instead of using E3 as a stage to announce Fallout 4- consider that their E3 invitation makes note of all of their various active franchises, but none of Fallout. And while various industry insiders are teasing Fallout 4 at E3, well, to put it bluntly, they have also teased Fallout 4 at goodness knows how many other previous major events in the past, and the game has obviously never once turned up there.

It might not turn up here either.

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  • Nintendo Fan 4 Lif3

    if it’s not announced they’ll be sure to hear from me.

    • KeplerNoMore

      What if they make a Skyrim Remastered with Coop?

    • Nintendo Fan 4 Lif3

      I honestly prefer Fallout over Elder Scrolls, I don’t think many do, so that won’t suffice and I’m one of the people who didn’t embrace Skyrim so that will just aggravate me more having a new TES especially with TES Online already here and no new Fallout since last gen. That will be a bigger disappoint than stir of excitement for a lot of people. Bethesda better hope they reveal the right game. For all we know it could be Dishonored 2 and neither of the other two at all.

    • KeplerNoMore

      Dishonered 2 was already hinted in the event invitation with save me a seat, alongside Doom 4 and Wolfenstein Old Blood, and probably Armored Warfare (the War Thunder f2p clone)

    • Nintendo Fan 4 Lif3

      Yes but since it hasn’t been formally announced that could be it. But I’d say that Fallout is more likely the candidate. I’d like to see both but I think much more people have been waking for another fallout for Bethesda to make anything else a priority atm.

    • andy

      Then they will hear from ME. Keep online out of my Fallout and Elder Scroll’s please. Now a remastered Morrowind released digitally would be a nice distraction.

    • Ultima-X

      And not care.

    • Nintendo Fan 4 Lif3

      No many people still care. They always do.

  • I’ll be quite disappointed if they don’t officially announce Fallout 4. I mean Elder Scrolls is great but , I still really love Fallout, so I hope things go as planned. And Fallout 4 is announced and released. Also I wonder if E3 is not announcing Fallout 4 to build up hype for the franchise.

  • Saty

    The fact that Fallout 3 sold only 5 million copies compared to skyrim which sold 20 million copies should not be considered as a factor to defer the release of FO4. FO3 was released in 2008 while Skyrim released in 2011 – I would say it PC/Console games have been becoming more and more popular and affordable with time. GTA 5 PC has sold 1 million in less than one month… I am pretty sure, this FO, i.e. FO4 will beat the shi* outta skyrim

    • SetoKaiba

      Not to mention by 2011 everyone had a PS3, 360 or PC. In 2008 there was still good number of people on the PS2. And as you mentioned gaming has gotten more popular since then.

  • GotNews4Ya

    I think it will just be a combination of your theory and the announcement of Fallout.. Bethesda would be stupid to waste that stage presence for only announcing Fallout 4.. As you have pretty much mentioned.. Fallout is a cult following, and it isn’t as big as Elder Scrolls has gotten recently.. But Skyrim did wonders for Bethesda in general, and people who loved Skyrim, some of them went deeper into Bethesda’s games.. and found one’s they loved.. and they are now awaiting Fall out.. so it is growing in importance.. Just because it didn’t sell as well as a newer game did.. Don’t count it out. I think they will announce both a New Elder Scrolls title, Outside of the MMO. A New Fallout (4), Dishonored 2, and possibly a few new IPs.. I can’t wait for E3.. I am stoked for all the games that are going to be announced for every system!

  • andy

    Not only that, what if it isn’t out in 2015? 🙁
    Because if they announce it for Fall 2015, I don’t want to know about its existence yet unless they are going to show off new gameplay every month until release.

  • SetoKaiba

    Then E3 will be a bust for me. Unless I’m getting something Fallout 4 or TES 6 related then E3 will be a big waste of time for me. Bethesda is the only reason I’m interested.

  • Admirateur

    New Single player elder scrolls or fallout, I’ll be equally happy. If none of these are announced, I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll play some more Witcher 3, big deal.

    • Mag1C

      It is a Big Deal cause by the time Fallout 4 or new ES come out we’ll be done with the Witcher.

  • Rioplats

    Either of the two big franchises will be happily received. I’d be inclined to believe it’s Fallout since they’ve not done anything with it in a while, whereas they just came off TES:V.
    If it’s neither of those two, I can’t see it going down well; it’s been 4 years since Skyrim’s release. Fans were pretty mad last year. If Bethesda Game Studios still have nothing to show at E3 this year, they’ve got to produce a damn good game. Like 98+ aggregate.
    P.S. What do Bethesda Game Studios’ release dates have to do with BethSoft’s other publishings? They produce games so infrequently anyway I find it difficult to believe they’d push it back further to promote less successful franchises.

  • Alex

    I highly doubt they would announce Elder Scrolls VI at this years E3 when Elder Scrolls Online is just coming out on the consoles. Fallout 4 makes the most sense. Just because Skyrim sold 20 million copies compared to Fallout 3’s 5 million copies does not mean it would do the same this time around. The new consoles have yet to mature in their product life cycle. Consider when Skyrim came out the Xbox 360 was 6 years old, when Fallout 3 came out the Xbox 360 was 3 years old. So of course Skyrim will sell better, more people own the console 6 years after launch compared to 3 years after launch. So to suggest that the Elder Scrolls sells better than the Fallout series, purely on this basis, is bogus. I don’t have any bias either way I would gladly play both Fallout 4 and Elder Scrolls VI. However if neither is announced, I will explode.

    • Lori Cerny

      I fully agree with your points. Me and my friends didn’t buy Fallout 3 until we heard all the rave reviews – many, many months later.

      Morrowind, ESO, Oblivion, Skyrim… those are all great games in their own way, but Fallout 3 is iconic. It’s been seven years since its launch and Bethesda is still releasing new Fallout T-shirts and merchandise which sell out. Do other game titles have such an avid fan base?

  • Christopher

    I still remember Bethesda’s Survivor 2299 garbage, and the miserable excuse. Whatever they release, my plan is to “test” it through first (ahem: “Y’ar me hearties!”), then buy it on sale (less than 20) in a few years if it impresses me. A lot.

    They got enough money taking advantage of people through the false advertising from that hoax.

    • Rob Holman

      Uh….they didn’t do that? Hence…hoax?

    • Christopher

      yes, they let the hoax go on for weeks profiting from the increased memorabilia sales. couldn’t be bothered to send out a simple “this is fake” through a tweet, or article, or any other medium. Took advantage of the situation, therefore I and many others don’t like them, therefore I wont be buying their game.

  • Chris Creveling

    It’s a full on press conference. A studio doesn’t hold a massive press conference for just one game (unless your name is Activision and you’re marketing Call of Duty). Of course they will unveil a full line-up of games. Doom is already confirmed. Dishonered was a great first step for Arkane, so I’m sure they’ve been hard at work on a sequel. It’s a bit too early to announce another Evil Within or Wolfenstein, but Bethesda has been gobbling up smaller developers and forming new studios, so some new IP’s will be unveiled as well. Fallout 4 will also be announced, and will likely launch toward the end of this year. Todd Howard has said before that they don’t like to announce their products too early. They like to have something to show when they announce their products, which is to say they’ll probably have a live gameplay demo and a scripted synopsis of the world you’ll explore and the story you’ll play.

    This isn’t really rocket science, and these speculatory articles about whether we’ll see Fallout 4 or not are really quite useless and boring. Every website posts several per month, and it’s always the same useless conjecture with the same “we really don’t know” ending. It’s pretty much a lock that we’ll see Fallout 4 in June. I just wish websites would stop dancing around logic and posting these types of speculatory articles when the truth is staring everyone in the face.

  • Anthony Liberatore

    God, I really hope, and like to think, that Bethesda has more shame than to turn Elder Scrolls into a cycling money making joke like CoD.

  • Dan Teh Chad

    The author fails to address a key difference when he discusses sales figures. Multiple actually. It’s easy to post a couple figures and say they support your point, but sometimes the full picture is a lot more muddy than that.

    Skyrim outsold Fallout 3. By a lot. This is quite true… But these aren’t directly relatable. First off, fallout vastly outsold Oblivion, the prior Elder Scrolls game. Secondly, Fallout 3 received vastly less televised marketing. Remember all those commercials on television and even in movie theatres for a good two or three months straight? Oh wait, that’s right, that’s how Bethesda marketed the last two Elder Scrolls games, not Fallout. Granted, fallout got the usual game magazine ads, and ad bars online, but Bethesda didn’t invest as much into heavy mainstream advertising for Fallout 3, not remotely. That makes a HUGE difference. Skyrim was advertised to and purchased by a demographic that basically only buys Call of Duty and Madden. I’m not saying they’re the ONLY people who bought Skyrim, it’s a fantastic game, but Bethesda made no point to reach these gamers with Fallout -a franchise that with its gritty violence, dark tones and mature content would have been more appealing to that crowd from a marketing perspective.

    Im not decrying The Elder Scrolls, I love those games. But it’s a wildly incomplete statement to compare their sales in such a blanket statement like that, when the scenarios were so different for them. Marketing is huge, absolutely huge, and it’s not something to be overlooked.

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