Many expect Red Dead Redemption 2 to be the biggest selling game of this year. They have good reason for thinking so- Rockstar games sell an insane amount, and Grand Theft Auto 5 is the highest selling retail game of all time. However, the analysts at Piper Jaffray, who today shared updated reports containing sales estimates for Take Two, EA, and Activision, don’t seem to agree with that assessment.
According to the analysis of Piper Jaffray’s analysts Michael J. Olson and Yung Kim, Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 will walk away with top honors this year, selling 21.5 million units by the end of the calendar year 2018 (the best case sales for it are estimated at 23.7 million, while worst case ones at 19.4 million). Battlefield 5, the upcoming World War 2 shooter by EA and DICE, is estimated to sell a good amount less, with projected sales of 16 million by the end of March 2018 (with a worst case of 14.4 million, and a best case of 17.6 million). Meanwhile, Red Dead Redemption 2 is estimated to be at 15.5 million units sold by the end of March (with a best case of 17.1 million, and a worst case of 14 million).
While I don’t know how much of their numbers I necessarily agree with, I do think that overall, Red Dead Redemption 2 may not do quite as well as many people seem to be expecting it to do- remember, the game’s setting is fundamentally more alienating to a worldwide audience over something like GTA, which is universal in its appeal. We’ll know soon enough how right (or not) this analysis is anyway- Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Battlefield 5 will all launch on Xbox One and PS4, with a PC release for Call of Duty and Battlefield as well, this Fall.