When do you get to a point where the music starts slowing and it becomes even more obvious than ever that “Hey, maybe physical games don’t have much of a future?” It was probably around the time Rockstar announced no disc when purchasing Grand Theft Auto 6 physically. Of course, we all know what happened next – PlayStation’s announcement is probably the best case of the music outright stopping, even if it’s still years off from happening. But lest we forget, many were (and remain) annoyed at Rockstar for the lack of a physical disc.
Which is a noble endeavor, don’t get me wrong. But beyond how much more understated physical sales have become, the futility is underscored by the fact that GTA 6 is topping pre-orders on the PlayStation Store in pretty much every region. The United States, UK, Germany, France, Italy – the list goes on, and surprise, surprise, the Ultimate Edition is on top over the Standard Edition. People really care about those five extra stores and customization options, which we’ll revisit later.
But if that wasn’t enough to convince you, analyst firm Newzoo released a new report revealing its projections for GTA 6’s sales. Within the first week of pre-orders, it reportedly earned $180 million in sales. And that’s only for the United States and the five biggest markets in Europe. Seven days and already close to earning about ten percent of its apparent $2 billion budget with roughly four months to go before launch.
Factoring in the rest of the world (measuring the same with Grand Theft Auto 5’s player base), it estimates $260 million globally. It certainly didn’t mince any words when it said, “That kicks off the strongest pre-order campaign ever recorded.” Think about just how much ground that covers, even if it is just an estimate.
But there’s more.
When applying what the firm calls a “plausible band of preorder curves” to that figure, it believes that at the current pace of pre-orders, Rockstar’s magnum opus could earn somewhere between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in revenue for its very first week. If you look at the lowest end, that would still make this launch bigger than anything we’ve ever seen before because it translates to around 37 million copies sold.
For comparison’s sake, Black Myth: Wukong sold 18 million copies in two weeks. Grand Theft Auto 5 reached almost 29 million shipments within six weeks of its launch. Red Dead Redemption 2 shipped a respectable 17 million-plus in 13 days. If you combined all three of their first week sales, it still probably wouldn’t match what’s estimated for Grand Theft Auto 6’s first seven days. And once again, that’s on the lowest end.
Of course, there’s a range to leave some reasonable doubt, but Newzoo estimates that it could sell about 51 million copies in its first week, bringing in $4.5 billion in sales. I hate to sound like Sadako here, but all that in just seven days.
It beggars any reasonable form of belief, but that’s Grand Theft Auto 6 in a nutshell, and it feels like that sentiment hasn’t really settled in.
Maybe it’s because we don’t know a ton about the game, having seen next to no raw gameplay, though there’s been plenty of details and trailer footage. Or maybe we’ve underestimated the average video game consumer. You know, the one that every analyst was hoping would come back with the launch of GTA 6, helping to essentially spur what’s been a lagging market for a year and change at this point. Those are the people buying that $100 Ultimate Edition – not just because they care about the incentives or the cosmetics or having the full package, but because that’s likely going to be the only game they play for the next year.
Preposterous? Believe me, as someone with a backlog of about 18 games from this year alone, I get it (although that’s probably far too far in the other direction). Yet, there’s a reason why Call of Duty, Fortnite, Grand Theft Auto, Roblox and Minecraft were the most played games of 2025 (and 2024) in the United States. Grand Theft Auto 6 isn’t breaking through the noise or side-stepping any controversies, so much as catering to the vast swathes of gamers who have been the most addicted to the franchise in years, even if a lot of that comes down to GTA Online.
Plenty of people understand this, even if more than a few severely underestimated how much it would earn. One analyst predicted $1 billion in pre-orders and $3.2 billion in the first year. Another claimed $10 billion in its lifetime. Granted, that was before pre-orders actually opened up, and it must be reiterated once more – that $4.5 billion figure and potential 51 million or so copies sold is based on the current pace of pre-orders. It could always go higher, and even in the worst circumstances, the low end is still unlike anything this industry, much less other media like films, has ever seen.
No, this hasn’t all been leading to me telling you why boycotts for any reason are ultimately ineffective and have no prospect of making a publisher change their tune (even if that usually ends up being the case). But imagine if things had ended up different and Rockstar tried to meet physical demands despite how impossible it seemed. How much of an impact would that have on the issue, especially with PlayStation’s stance?
Then again, the potential tens of millions of sales at launch might be why Rockstar and Take-Two decided to forego discs entirely – why try to meet that kind of demand? Heck, even avoiding a percentage of that could be a major cost-saving initiative, and it wouldn’t have to endure complaints from those who couldn’t get one. Then again, it’s also possible that PlayStation got in their ears early, and warned them of what was to come. We’ll never truly know.
There’s also the other elephant in the room – that the market may not have enough consoles to meet sales demands for the holidays – not exactly the best news for an industry attempting to sell more of the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S. It’s another example of how one title could have such wide-ranging impact. Even if that game is Grand Theft Auto 6, and it feels downright elementary, the fact that triple-A gaming has progressed to this point to where such things are possible feels like a cautionary tale.
It will bring in billions in revenue against an equally massive budget, and what’s to stop other publishers from attempting the same, even if their franchises will never reach the same level? How could anyone ignore the siren’s call that is billions within the first week by whatever means necessary?
While all of that is food for thought – especially since it doesn’t account for GTA 6’s performance past the first week – you also have to wonder. If Rockstar is able to secure this level of revenue despite marketing not really having kicked off, who’s to say it couldn’t go even higher when it actually showcases more gameplay? What if the next iteration of Grand Theft Auto Online is treated as a completely different product that will command its own price, not including microtransactions? Selling it for $20 to $30 would bring in even more revenue on top, but it feels like such a Take-Two thing to do.
Either way, I still feel like it hasn’t quite settled in just how much of an event this will be, and how it could end up impacting players in all kinds of ways (obvious and otherwise). Whether Newzoo’s estimates prove true or fall just short, it’s clear the industry is just not prepared for the cataclysm that is Grand Theft Auto 6.
Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, GamingBolt as an organization.
